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What the history of elite young catchers tells us about Jays prospect Gabriel Moreno

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The Gabriel Moreno hype train was doing just fine before the 21-year-old catcher first suited up for the Mesa Solar Sox of the Arizona Fall League in October — but after he hit .329/.415/.494 in a league with some of baseball’s top prospects, it reached a new gear.

Moreno’s fall league production, paired with a couple of appearances at third base hinting at the Toronto Blue Jays’ desire to find additional ways to get him into their lineup, has fans wondering about what kind of contribution he could make at the MLB level in 2022.

Although Moreno has limited triple-A experience, and his remarkable run at double-A in 2021 came in just 32 games, he’s not far from having an impact at the highest level. It’s reasonable to think he’ll factor into the Blue Jays’ plans next season, which begs the question of what he might produce as a rookie.

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That’s tough to answer because historical comps for catchers with his prospect pedigree are few and far between. Baseball America listed Moreno as its 8th-ranked prospect in September, and his stock certainly hasn’t fallen since, making him one of the few backstops to earn top-10 prospect status with the organization that has the longest track record of prospect ranking.

Baseball America has been releasing top 100 prospect lists since 1990, and only 13 catchers other than Moreno have made the top 10. One of them, Adley Rutschman of the Baltimore Orioles, has yet to make his MLB debut. Another, Blue Jays star Carlos Delgado, only caught two games at the highest level.

That leaves only 11 backstops at Moreno’s prospect level that we have MLB numbers for. That’s a small, but instructive, sample. Below is their combined performance as rookies in just under 5,000 plate appearances:

Those numbers aren’t reminding anyone of prime Mike Piazza, but that’s pretty strong production for any rookies, especially catchers — who play a position where the league average slash line was .229/.305/.391 in 2021. There’s a bit of an apples-to-oranges issue as the top prospects’ numbers come from a variety of different offensive environments. However, nine of the 11 had a wRC+ above 95, a number that the average MLB catcher hasn’t cracked in the 20 years that FanGraphs has compiled precise position-by-position hitting splits.

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One of the two rookies unable to top that mark was a 19-year-old Iván Rodríguez, who couldn’t have fairly been expected to hit the best pitching in the world as a teenager — especially after posting a sub-.700 OPS at every stop of his truncated minor-league career. Only 1995 second-overall pick Ben Davis was a significant minus with the bat at a similar age to Moreno (22).

Things are a little more ambiguous on the defensive side of the ball. Concerns about a rookie catcher’s ability to handle the nuances of the position is warranted, and historical performance is tough to quantify.

Even so, this cohort of top prospect rookies (with the notable exception of defensive train wreck Jesús Montero) seemed to perform well. Two members of the group (Charles Johnson and Sandy Alomar Jr.) won Gold Gloves as rookies, an impressive feat considering the role track record and reputation tends to play in defensive award voting. Two more of the backstops (Matt Wieters and Rodríguez) won within their first three years, making it unlikely they weren’t at least passable out of the gate.

Although most of the catchers’ debuts predate metrics such as DRS and FRM, it’s notable that they held their own in the running game combining for a 30.8 percent caught steal rate — despite awful efforts from Montero and Todd Zeile, who were ultimately moved off the position.

Considering Moreno’s limited upper-minors experience, it seems odd to compare him directly to a group of players that include all-time greats at his position such as Rodríguez, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer. The fact those players are his most obvious peers just shows how promising his minor-league career has been to this point. It’s extremely difficult to make the major leagues as a catcher, let alone be recognized as one of baseball’s elite prospects.

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That doesn’t mean it’s impossible Moreno totally busts like Montero did (although his higher defensive floor makes it unlikely). He could also go on to a relatively anonymous career like Davis, or longtime Montreal Expos starter Michael Barrett. Those don’t seem to be the most likely outcomes, though. If the last 30 years of top-prospect catchers are anything to go by, he’s got a solid chance to make a significant impact from the moment he arrives in the majors.



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LeBron James on whether Kyrie Irving can help Lakers: 'Duh'

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LeBron James has no doubt that Kyrie Irving would make the Lakers a contender, but he noted that he’s not in the team’s front office.



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NBA Roundup: Gilgeous-Alexander drops 42 in Thunder win; Clippers top Knicks in OT

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OKLAHOMA CITY — Canada’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 42 points and Oklahoma City set a Thunder record for points to rout Houston.

Oklahoma City surpassed the 150 it scored in a win over the Boston Celtics last month.

Gilgeous-Alexander shot 7 for 23 in a loss to the Rockets on Wednesday night. He bounced back to make 14 of 23 field goals in the rematch, falling two points short of his career high. The first-time All-Star also made 14 of 15 free throws and had six assists.

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Josh Christopher and TyTy Washington each scored 20 points for Houston.

NETS 125, WIZARDS 123

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NEW YORK — Cam Thomas scored a career-high 44 points off the bench and short-handed Brooklyn overcame a 23-point deficit to beat Washington.

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Edmond Sumner also set a personal best with 29 points. Brooklyn guard Kyrie Irving was out with what the team said was right calf soreness a day after he told the Nets he wants to be traded.

The Nets, who also played without Kevin Durant (right knee MCL sprain), T.J. Warren (left shin contusion) and Ben Simmons (left knee soreness), also lost Seth Curry (left adductor) and Markieff Morris (sore left knee) in the game.

Kristaps Porzingis led the Wizards with 38 points.

SUNS 116, PISTONS 100

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DETROIT — Deandre Ayton had 31 points and 16 rebounds to help Phoenix beat Detroit.

The surging Sungs have won eight of 10 games, including a victory at Boston on Friday night, and have help on the way with Devin Booker nearing his return. The three-time All-Star guard has been out since Christmas with a groin injury, but dunked in warmups in another sign that he’s close to coming back.

Chris Paul had 14 assists for a balanced offence that didn’t need him to make shots, finishing 0 for 7 and without a field goal for the first time since March 18, 2017, when he helped the Los Angeles Clippers beat Cleveland by 30 points.

Mikal Bridges scored 24 points, Cameron Johnson had 20 points and Torrey Craig added 14 points for Phoenix. Saddiq Bey had 25 points for Detroit.

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BUCKS 123, HEAT 115

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MILWAUKEE — Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple-double with 35 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists and Milwaukee beat short-handed Miami for its seventh straight victory.

Jimmy Butler scored 32 points and Tyler Herro added 24 for the Heat, who had just nine available players. Notable injured Miami players included Kyle Lowry (sore left knee) and Victor Oladipo (sprained right ankle).

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Antetokounmpo had his third triple-double of the season and 32nd of his career. The 11 assists matched his season high.

Antetokounmpo’s latest triple-double came two nights after he scored 54 points in a 106-105 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. During the Bucks’ six-game winning streak, Antetokounmpo is averaging 39.4 points, 14.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists.

WARRIORS 119 MAVERICKS 113

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SAN FRANCISCO — Stephen Curry had 21 points, seven assists and six rebounds before injuring his left leg defending a drive and Golden State beat an undermanned Dallas team missing injured star Luka Doncic.

The Warriors said X-rays for Curry were negative, and he will have an MRI exam.

Draymond Green added 17 points, nine rebounds and nine assists for Golen State.

Spencer Dinwiddie scored 25 points for Dallas. Doncic bruised his right heel in the third quarter of 111-106 home victory against New Orleans on Thursday night.

PELICANS 131, LAKERS 126

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NEW ORLEANS — LeBron James moved 36 points away from breaking the NBA career scoring record in the Los Angeles Lakers’ 131-126 loss to New Orleans on Saturday night that ended the Pelicans’ losing streak at 10 games.

James had 27 points to go with nine rebounds and six assists as he continued to close in on Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record total of 38,387 points.

Brandon Ingram scored 35 points for the Pelicans.

CJ McCollum had 23 points, highlighted by a late 3 to help New Orleans close out the final 3:14 on a 9-5 run that kept the Lakers at bay.

Anthony Davis had 34 points and 14 rebounds for the Lakers.

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CLIPPERS 134, KNICKS 128, OT

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NEW YORK — Kawhi Leonard scored 35 points, Paul George added 30 and Los Angeles beat New York in overtime.

After the Clippers lost a 17-point fourth quarter lead, Nicolas Batum’s 3-pointer at the regulation buzzer tied it at 115.

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The Clippers scored the first four points of overtime and never relinquished the lead. Leonard connected on all of his eight free throws in the extra session, finishing 12 for 12 from the line.

Norman Powell added 24 points for the Clippers and Marcus Morris Sr. had 17. Los Angeles has won seven of nine.

Jalen Brunson, who returned after missing a game due to a non-COVID illness, led the Knicks with 41 points. Julius Randle had 28.

BULLS 129, TRAIL BLAZERS 121

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CHICAGO — Zach LaVine scored 36 points, DeMar DeRozan had 27 and Chicago topped Damian Lillard and Portland.

Nikola Vucevic added 23 points and 11 rebounds as Chicago won for the third time in four games, erasing a 17-point deficit in the second half.

Lillard scored 40 points for Portland, and Anfernee Simons had 27. But the Trail Blazers looked a little tired in the second half of their third game in four nights. Portland had won five of six, including a 124-116 victory at Washington on Friday night.

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Tre White's 22 points leads USC to hard-fought 80-74 victory over Washington

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Tre White led the USC Trojans to the hard-fought 80-74 win over the Washington Huskies. White led all scorers on the night with 22 points and added eight rebounds on the night.



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