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Week 10 NFL picks, odds, 2021 best bets from proven model: This five-way football parlay would pay 25-1

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Quarterbacks will be a major storyline on Sunday when Week 10 of the NFL schedule resumes. While Aaron Rodgers of the Packers and Russell Wilson of the Seahawks will return to the lineup and face off at Lambeau Field, the SteelersBen Roethlisberger will miss Sunday’s game against the Lions after being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. In addition, multiple reports say the Cardinals are pessimistic about whether Kyler Murray (ankle) will be able to play against the Panthers. Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook, but which teams should you back with your NFL bets and NFL parlays?

Other key NFL matchups include Bill Belichick squaring off against his former team, the Browns, and receiver Odell Beckham Jr. potentially making his Rams debut on Monday Night Football against the 49ers. Before making any Week 10 NFL picks or predictions, you need to check out the NFL best bets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,600 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 10 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-88 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

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The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 10. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 10 NFL picks at SportsLine

Top Week 10 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Broncos to cover as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Eagles. Denver (5-4) sits just a half-game behind the Chargers and Raiders (both 5-3) in the crowded AFC West. Philadelphia (3-6) is in a dogfight with the Giants (3-6) and Washington (2-6) for second place in the NFC East, far behind the division-leading Cowboys (6-2).

Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos have a strong matchup against the Eagles’ pass defense. Bridgewater is completing 70.2 percent of his passes, the best of his career. On Sunday, he faces a Philadelphia pass defense that has allowed five teams this season to complete 80 percent or more of its passes. Since passing stats became available in 1950, the Eagles have allowed just 14 other opponents 80 percent passing days.

How to make Week 10 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other matchups where it says the line is way off, including a divisional battle and a game between two teams fighting for their playoff lives. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 10 best bets and parlay at SportsLine

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What are the model’s top Week 10 NFL picks? And which other matchups should you target for an epic 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 10 NFL best bets from a model on a 128-88 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.





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White Sox’s Tony La Russa issues another intentional walk on two-strike count in loss vs. Guardians

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Chicago White Sox manager Tony La Russa made one of the weirdest strategic decisions of the season in June, when he issued an intentional walk to a batter who his pitcher had already staked out a 1-2 count against. The call backfired, as the next batter unloaded a home run that put the White Sox in a hole from which they could not recover. La Russa defended his decision afterward, and on Friday night he doubled-down, in a sense, by doing the same thing against the Cleveland Guardians as part of a 5-2 loss (box score).

Here’s how it went down:

The White Sox led the Guardians 2-1 entering the seventh inning. Cleveland would subsequently score a pair of runs with two outs in the frame to take a 3-2 lead before La Russa inserted left-handed reliever Jake Diekman. Diekman would then walk two consecutive batters before giving up a single to Andrés Giménez to plate two more runs, making it 5-2 with runners on first and second. At that point, the Guardians rookie outfielder Oscar Gonzalez had a chance to blow the game open.

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Diekman would get ahead of Gonzalez 1-2 before the Guardians’ baserunners succeeded on a double-steal attempt. With first base open and two outs, La Russa called for the intentional walk. It should be noted that Gonzalez, though right-handed, has performed worse against lefty pitchers this season, and that he’s struck out in nearly 40 percent of the plate appearances that have reached two strikes.

Nevertheless, La Russa evidently wanted to force Cleveland manager Terry Francona’s hand with the next spot in the order. Lefty-swinging rookie Nolan Jones was due up, but Francona subbed him out for righty Owen Miller. La Russa then strolled to the mound to replace Diekman with right-hander Jimmy Lambert, who subsequently induced an inning-ending flyout on the second pitch of the at-bat.

The results will spare La Russa from the intensity of criticism that he received in June, but that doesn’t make it a sound process. We know from various studies conducted by smart analysts that microsplits, including those of the platoon and count variety, require regression toward the mean to have any actual predictive value. Maybe La Russa had those numbers on hand from the White Sox’s analytical department, but we’re going to guess that he made his call based on Gonzalez’s two-strike average (.265) and Miller’s average against righties (.262 this year or .242 career). 

After all, if intentionally walking batters who are stuck in two-strike counts was a sound tactical decision based on the numbers, the odds are that the Los Angeles Dodgers or … well, the Guardians would be the ones doing it; not La Russa. 

It may have not factored into the final score on Friday, but the White Sox can’t be thrilled that their manager seems committed to making the same mistake twice.

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Sonya Deville & Natalya face Toxic Attraction in WWE's Tag Team Title Tournament | WWE on FOX

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Natalya and Sonya Deville took on former NXT Women’s Tag Team Champions Gigi Dolin and Jacy Jayne from Toxic Attraction on Friday Night SmackDown.



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Elks dominate second half, snap three-game skid with win over Redblacks 

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OTTAWA — Taylor Cornelius threw two touchdown passes and the Edmonton Elks scored 21 unanswered points in the second half of a 30-12 win over the Ottawa Redblacks on Friday.

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Cornelius completed 16-of-27 passes for 208 yards, including a four-yard touchdown pass to Derel Walker with 6:34 left in the fourth quarter. The win halted a three-game losing streak for the Elks (3-7).

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Caleb Evans threw for 111 yards and rushed for another 82, including a 21-yard touchdown run, but the Redblacks (1-8) lost for the 19th time in their last 20 games.

One of the few bright spots for the Redblacks was a 50-yard reception by Darvin Adams, who played in his 100th CFL game.

An 18-yard touchdown pass from Cornelius to Kenny Lawler at 11:03 in the third quarter gave the Elks their first lead of the game at 16-12.

Just under eight minutes later, Ante Milanovic-Litre scored on a two-yard run to boost the Elks’ lead to 23-12 following a Sergio Castillo extra point.

The Redblacks entered the third quarter up 12-9 after a less than spectacular first half that began with Ottawa’s PA announcer introducing Edmonton as the Eskimos.

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Lewis Ward made a 46-yard field goal near the midway mark of the first quarter, but a roughing the kicker penalty on Edmonton defensive lineman Jake Ceresna gave the Redblacks a fresh set of downs. A minute later, Ottawa took advantage as Evans ran in for a 21-yard score at the 7:43 mark.

The Elks answered back before the end of the quarter on a 52-yard field goal by Castillo.

In the second quarter, Ward left six points on the board with back-to-back missed field goals from 40 and 47 yards that led to a pair of rouge points. Ward connected from 13 yards out with 4:45 left to give the Redblacks a 12-3 lead.

Late in the first half, the Elks had the ball at the Redblacks one-yard line following a defensive pass interference call.

Quarterback Kai Locksley entered the game for the short-yardage situation but was stopped twice on sneak attempts. Locksley scored on his third attempt on a sweep right play, but Castillo hit the upright on the point after attempt to make it 12-9.

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