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UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez odds, predictions: MMA insider releases surprising fight card picks

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Yair Rodriguez knows his two-year absence has likely caused some MMA fans to forget about the world-class skills that made him a top contender in the featherweight division. He plans to remind everyone in impressive fashion when he takes on top-ranked former champion Max Holloway in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez on Saturday. Their battle tops the main UFC fight card (4 p.m. ET) from the Apex facility in Las Vegas. The third-ranked Rodriguez hasn’t fought in two years because of injuries and a six-month suspension, but he has just one career UFC loss and believes an upset Saturday will restore his status among the sport’s elite. The winner could be in line for the division’s next title shot.

Holloway is a -600 favorite (risk $600 to win $100), while Rodriguez is priced at +450 in the latest Holloway vs. Rodriguez odds at Caesars Sportsbook. In the co-main event, Ben Rothwell (-150) takes on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+130) in a battle of veteran heavyweights. Before making any UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez picks of your own, make sure you check out the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine analyst Andrew Gombas

Gombas is a former NCAA wrestler who taps into his experience on the mat to dissect the X’s and O’s of MMA matchups in a manner that sets him apart from other MMA analysts. He started the MMA handicapping service MMA Knockout Bets in 2018 and has shown a profit every year since.

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With more than 1,200 selections tracked by the third-party monitoring service Bet MMA, he has shown a 10 percent return on investment for his followers. In 2020, $100 bettors who tailed his picks were up $9,200. L week at UFC 268, Gombas accurately called a dominant performance for Bobby Green (-170) against Al Iaquinta (+150) in a battle of veteran lightweights. Green scored a first-round stoppage to give his followers an easy winner. Anyone who has followed Gombas already has seen massive returns.

Now, with UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez in sight, Gombas has studied the UFC Fight Night card from top to bottom and released his top selections. A successful parlay of those picks would pay better than 10-1. See them here.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez preview

Holloway (22-6) remains one of the most popular fighters on the UFC roster because of his nonstop attacking style inside the cage and gregarious personality away from it. Even though he is still just 29, the Hawaiian is on the doorstep of his 10th anniversary with the UFC. His career with the promotion began with a submission loss to Dustin Poirier in February 2012, but he has since emerged as one of the dominant fighters of this generation.

Following a loss to Conor McGregor in August 2013 while both were still prospects, Holloway reeled off 13 consecutive UFC victories and became a champion in the process. He defeated Anthony Pettis for the title at UFC 206 in December 2016 and his defense included back-to-back wins over former titleholder Jose Aldo.

His stock has hardly dimmed despite the pair of losses to Volkanovski in large part because both were competitive matches. Many observers felt Holloway deserved to win the rematch, but the champion was awarded a disputed split decision. Trilogy fights rarely happen when one combatant has won the first two, but Holloway’s plight appears to be a potential exception.

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Rodriguez (13-2-1) is known for his vast array of weapons that include karate, kickboxing and submissions. The 29-year-old Mexican fighter won his first six UFC appearances before suffering a loss to former champion Frankie Edgar.

He has two wins and one no-contest since, and his last outing resulted in a lopsided decision over rugged veteran Jeremy Stephens in October 2019. You can only see who to back here.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez predictions

We’ll share one of Gombas’ UFC Fight Night selections here: He is backing Miguel Baeza (-140) to get his hand raised against Khaos Williams (+120) in a battle of welterweight prospects.

Baeza (10-1) has exhibited a lethal mix of powerful striking and world-class grappling while going 3-1 in four UFC appearances after making his debut in October 2019. However, the 29-year-old Florida native tasted defeat for the first time in his last outing. He dropped a unanimous decision to rugged veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio, who is now ranked No. 13.

Baeza looks to get back on track against the power-punching Williams (12-2), who boasts two first-round knockouts among his three UFC wins. The 27-year-old Michigan native similarly has just one defeat in the UFC and is hoping to build off a decision victory against Matthew Semelsberger in June.

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“I like Baeza in this matchup. I expect him to land lots of leg kicks and push kicks to the body, setting up the late knockout,” Gombas told SportsLine. 

How to make UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez picks

Gombas also has strong picks for Holloway vs. Rodriguez and other fights on the UFC Fight Night card. He’s also backing one fighter who’s superior in striking and cardio to deliver an upset. Those UFC Fight Night picks are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins Holloway vs. Rodriguez? And which UFC picks do you need to make for a 10-1 parlay? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the insider who’s up nearly $9,200 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez odds

Max Holloway (-600) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+450)
Ben Rothwell (-150) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+130)
Felicia Spencer (-300) vs. Leah Letson (+250)
Song Yadong (-140) vs. Julio Arce (+120)
Thiago Moises (-250) vs. Joel Alvarez (+210)
Cynthia Calvillo (-120) vs. Andrea Lee (+100)
Miguel Baeza (-140) vs. Khaos Williams (+120)
Kyle Daukaus (-220) vs. Roman Dolidze (+190)
Sean Woodson (-290) vs. Collin Anglin (+245)
Cortney Casey (-220) vs. Liana Jojua (+190)
Marc Diakiese (-180) vs. Rafael Alves (+160)
Da Un Jung (-120) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+100)

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Chase Elliott passes Ryan Blaney at Talladega to advance to Round of 8

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Chase Elliott rebounded from Texas to log a victory at Talladega and lock up his spot in NASCAR’s next round. Bob Pockrass has the takeaways.



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Raptors open pre-season with win in front of playoff-worthy Edmonton crowd

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Edmonton – They like them. They really like them.

After a week spent in Western Canada – first in Victoria where the Toronto Raptors held training camp and now in Alberta where they hosted the Utah Jazz in their first exhibition game Sunday evening – it’s safe to say the enthusiasm for Canada’s lone NBA team extends well beyond the boundaries of the GTA or Southern Ontario.

This isn’t breaking news – exploding TV ratings and the proliferation of Jurassic Parks across the country during the Raptors’ championship run in 2019 made the case pretty convincing.

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But it’s still interesting to get a flavour of it in person. The crowd at the intrasquad scrimmage in Victoria was as loud and enthusiastic as possible for the type of event it was – a live practice with a bit of goodwill and community building baked in.

In Edmonton, Rogers Place was jammed to the rafters, and it seemed like everyone in the building was wearing official team merchandise. A playoff worthy ‘let’s go Raptors’ chant broke out before the ball went up and every Raptors basket from the opening tip to the final horn was greeted like it meant something.

“It is always a great reception,” said Raptors head coach Nick Nurse on Sunday.

“That place couldn’t have been any more full for an intrasquad game out in Victoria the other day … normally for these [Canadian exhibition] games the reception is great, the crowd is into it. It’s their one chance to see some of the home talent in their home area. They usually bring it. It’s cool because there are a lot of pre-season games you have zero energy, almost tipping toward negative energy in some of those games. We don’t have to go through that. It’s fun. … I think it’s great for basketball in Canada as well.”

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What to glean from what turned out to be a 114-82 blowout?

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Well, not all that much. Nurse had said beforehand that the game would be light on minutes for starters and heavy on opportunities for those in the middle of his rotation.

The starters turned it over a lot and looked a little rusty – Pascal Siakam was 1-of-6 in the first quarter with four giveaways all on his own. But Scottie Barnes looks like he’s ready to pick up where his rookie-of-the-year season left off as he had eight points, five rebounds, three assists and two steals in 17:31 of floor time.

Precious Achiuwa looked quick off the dribble, and calm and collected in transition, suggesting he’s not about to regress to the early-season awkwardness he started with early last season. He led all Raptors scorers in the first half with 10.

But there was little for the established players to prove. More interesting was what was going on elsewhere on the roster.

“You could sit here and say a Wednesday practice at training camp is very low stakes,” said Nurse. “But when you’re fighting for position or fighting for rotation minutes, you’ve got to play well. You’ve got to play hard, and you’ve got to play well.

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“… We’ll see what translates from practice to the game floor. It’s the same things I always say: First and foremost are you going to give great effort? Are you going to compete? Are you going to play winning basketball? Are you going to do the schemes right? Are you going to fill a role? The list is pretty long, but those would be some broad-stroke ideas that would be helpful to guys to make the team.”

Early in the second quarter Raptors fans got their first glimpse of rookie big man Christian Koloko.

The seven-footer from Cameroon made a few nice plays: finishing off a clever pass from Siakam for his first bucket and looking comfortable shooting from the baseline on another, though the ball didn’t drop. He got to the free-throw line after making an adventurous drive to the rim from the perimeter, though only made 1-of-2 shots there. His highlight was a putback dunk off an Achiuwa lay-up late in the first half that sparked the Rogers Place crowd.

More interesting was that defensively – which will be his ticket to a steady role in the NBA – he was directing traffic, communicating, and consistently engaged. He looked comfortable guarding pick-and-roll actions on the perimeter as well.

“He’s handled things very well. He falls into the category of ‘you just don’t see him making very many mistakes’,” said Nurse. “He’ll block a shot, he’ll get a tip in, he’ll move the ball, he’ll get an extra possession with an offensive rebound; those things all add up and there’s not a whole lot of takeaways from what he does or things that take away from the team.

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“So to me, he’s looked very good, very solid, a guy we can use for sure.”

The Raptors led 50-49 at the half, setting the stage for a 31-point runaway in the second half.  But by then Nurse was committed to seeing new faces and combinations. Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby were all done for the night. In their place, alongside Barnes and Gary Trent Jr., were Chris Boucher, Khem Birch, and Juancho Hernangomez. They pushed the lead to 12 before Barnes and Trent Jr. sat down in place of Malachi Flynn and Dalano Banton.

It would seem there is a path to some steady playing time for either one of Flynn or Banton, with the Raptors’ stated goal of cutting back on VanVleet’s minutes, especially since another stated goal is for Toronto to get to the rim more this season.

Flynn in particular is at a stage where he has to prove his worth as he heads into his third season. He opened some eyes in the summer as he put up some hard-to-miss stat lines in some pro-am games, including a 73-point outing in a game this July in a Seattle game hosted by Jamal Crawford.

“I just feel good,” said Flynn. “I put work in in the summer. So just going off of that. Just ready to compete and have a good year.”

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It looked like his night might be cut short when he briefly had to leave the floor after taking a hard knock to the side of the head from Jazz guard Colin Sexton. He was fine in the end and ended up chipping in eight points in the second-half route.

Banton was in good form too, as he galloped through the open court for nine points, three rebounds and two steals. The bench – even the deepest corners of it – overwhelmed the Jazz. Toronto took an 82-64 lead into the fourth quarter and was lifted to the finish line by the energy of the ‘home’ crowd whose enthusiasm never wavered.

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Ross Chastain after his fourth place finish at Talladega

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Ross Chastain after finishing fourth: “My stomach hurts just from agonizing in the car over the wreck that I knew was going to happen. It was incredible we all made it.”



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