Mac Jones and the New England Patriots will visit Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots (6-4) will come into Mercedes-Benz Stadium on a four-game winning streak after crushing the Browns 45-7 last Sunday. New England has won six straight meetings, including the 34-28 comeback victory in Super Bowl LI after staking the Falcons a 28-3 lead.

Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is a seven-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Falcons odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 47.5. Before you lock in any Falcons vs. Patriots picks or any other Week 11 NFL predictions, you need to see which side red-hot SportsLine NFL expert Emory Hunt is backing. 

Hunt is the founder and CEO of Football Gameplan, which has been supplying analysis of all levels of football since 2007, and a former running back at Louisiana-Lafayette. He knows the game from a player’s perspective.

In addition, Hunt has been locked in on the tendencies of both of these teams. He is an uncanny 17-4 in his last 21 spread picks involving the Falcons. His success on New England against-the-spread picks is equally impressive, as he is 13-4 on his last 17 picks on the Patriots. Anyone who has followed his advice is way up.

Now, Hunt has broken down Patriots vs. Falcons from every angle and just locked in his expert NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see his TNF picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Patriots:  

• Patriots vs. Falcons spread: New England -7
• Patriots vs. Falcons over-under: 47.5 
• Patriots vs. Falcons money line: New England  -300, Atlanta +240 
• NE: Patriots are 10-7 against the spread in non-conference games since 2018 
• ATL: Falcons are 7-4 ATS as home underdogs since 2015

Why the Patriots can cover

New England is 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings, covering in four straight in Atlanta. The combination of an offense that is coming to life behind Mac Jones and a defense that has been among the league’s best could make it a long night for the Falcons. New England is allowing just 17.7 points per game, second-fewest in the NFL, while Atlanta is scoring fewer than 20 points per game (25th). The Falcons also yield the second-most points (29.2) and face a Patriots offense that ranks seventh (27.5).

Jones has been growing in the offense and taking more shots downfield. He completed 19-of-23 passes (82.6 percent) for 198 yards and three TDs last week, while Rhamondre Stevenson had his first 100-yard game as New England rushed for 182 yards.      

Why the Falcons can cover

The Falcons’ offense was showing improvement, with Ryan topping 300 yards in three of the previous four games, but he threw for just 117 in the loss to the Cowboys. Still, the veteran has a big-time weapon in rookie right end Kyle Pitts, who has 417 yards over the past five games and is averaging more than 15 per catch for the season.

Atlanta is 9-6 against the spread in games following a loss since the start of the 2020 season. The defense has been giving up points, but it ranks 16th against the pass (246.2 yards per game) and 21st against the run (122.1). The unit will try to rattle New England’s rookie quarterback, who has been sacked 19 times and thrown seven interceptions. Atlanta is 5-1 against the spread in non-conference games since the start of last season.

How to make Patriots vs. Falcons picks

For Thursday Night Football, Hunt is leaning over on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s sharing what it is, and which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread to back, only at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the expert who is 30-8 on picks involving these teams, and find out.