The Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Phoenix Suns to Fiserv Forum for a high-profile matchup on Sunday afternoon. Milwaukee and Phoenix face off in a rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals, and the Bucks are 22-12 at home this season. Milwaukee is 39-25 overall, with Phoenix bringing the NBA’s best overall record (51-12) and road record (23-5) to the table. Devin Booker (protocols), Chris Paul (thumb), and Cameron Johnson (quad) are out for Phoenix. Brook Lopez (back), Pat Connaughton (finger), George Hill (neck), and Wes Matthews (hamstring) are out for Milwaukee.

Tip-off is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bucks as nine-point favorites at home, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 232 in the latest Suns vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Suns, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 19 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 71-44 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning more than $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Suns vs. Bucks, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Suns:

• Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -9
• Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 232 points
• Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -450, Suns +350
• PHX: The Suns are 14-10 against the spread in cross-conference games
• MIL: The Bucks are 10-11 against the spread in cross-conference games

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix’s defense is fantastic, ranking in the top three of the NBA in points allowed per possession, field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and assists allowed this season. The Suns are also excellent on offense, however, and Phoenix is set up to exploit Milwaukee’s primary defensive weakness. The Bucks allow more 3-pointers per game than any team in the NBA, and Phoenix is in the top five in 3-point accuracy at 36.3 percent. The Suns are also in the top four of the league in field goal percentage (48.2 percent) and two-point percentage (54.7 percent), leading to the league’s No. 3 overall offense. 

Phoenix is a fantastic passing team, averaging 27.1 assists per game, and the Suns are near the top of the NBA in turnover rate (12.9 percent) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.09). Phoenix generates an assist on 63 percent of field goals, No. 7 in the NBA, and the Suns are in the top 10 of the league in points in the paint (48.8 per game).

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s offense is difficult to defend, with the Bucks scoring 113.0 points per 100 possessions. That ranks No. 6 in the NBA, and the Bucks are in the top quarter of the league in 3-pointers (14.2 per game) and 3-point percentage (36.2 percent). Milwaukee is also No. 7 in the NBA in free throw attempts, averaging 22.7 per game, and the Bucks are in the top 10 in turnover rate (13.5 percent) and fast break points (13.5 per game). Milwaukee produces 13.5 second-chance points per game, and Phoenix simply isn’t the same team without Paul available. 

The Suns are 5.7 points per 100 possessions worse when Paul is off the floor this season, and Phoenix will be facing a Milwaukee defense that is stingy. The Bucks allow fewer than 1.1 points per possession, with above-average marks in field goal percentage allowed, free throw attempts allowed, points allowed in the paint, and fast break points. Phoenix is No. 24 in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. 

How to make Bucks vs. Suns picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, predicting a combined 219 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Suns vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.