Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. The 76ers are listed as seven-point favorites at home, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216.5 in the latest Spurs vs. 76ers odds. Before you make any Sixers vs. Spurs picks and NBA predictions, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 50-27 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
San Antonio: The Spurs are 11-9 against the spread in road games
Philadelphia: The 76ers are 5-10 against the spread in home games
Featured Game| Philadelphia 76ers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Why the Spurs can cover
The Spurs have an intriguing offensive profile. San Antonio is No. 2 in the NBA in assists, averaging 28.2 per game, and the Spurs are in the top two in assist percentage (64.9 percent) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.14). San Antonio is also shooting 46.7 percent from the floor, sixth in the NBA, and the Spurs are making 35.5 percent of three-point attempts. The Spurs produce 14.6 second-chance points per game, with top-six marks in fast break points (14.1 per game) and points in the paint (54.6 per game).
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On defense, the Spurs do a fantastic job on the margins, giving up only 10.2 fast break points and 19.2 free throw attempts per game. San Antonio is above-average in turnover creation, forcing 14.4 per game, and opponents average only 23.7 assists per game against the Spurs. In addition, Philadelphia is No. 28 in three-pointers and dead-last in the NBA in offensive rebound rate.
Why the 76ers can cover
Philadelphia is potent in key areas on both offense and defense. The 76ers are scoring more than 110 points per 100 possessions on offense, with above-average figures in fast break points (12.6 per game) and field goal percentage (46 percent). Philadelphia commits a turnover on only 12.8 percent of possessions, a top-five figure, and the 76ers produce 1.83 assists for every turnover. Philadelphia is No. 1 in the NBA in free throw accuracy at 81.8 percent, with strong metrics in three-point accuracy (35.5 percent) and free throw attempts (21.3 per game).
The 76ers are No. 2 in the NBA in blocked shots, averaging 5.9 per game, and Philadelphia produces 7.9 steals per contest. Philadelphia is also above-average in assists allowed, free throw attempts allowed, shooting efficiency allowed and points allowed in the paint.
How to make Spurs vs. 76ers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with 14 players projected to score at least nine points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Sixers vs. Spurs pick at SportsLine.
The NFL has been changing and evolving over the years, as it has become more of a pass-friendly league through the past decade or two.
Part of that evolution has been the offensive philosophy on fourth down, which was, until recently, strictly a punt-only situation.
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But now, more and more teams are going for it on fourth downs, and Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is one of the men who is leading the way in that department.
Last season, his team went for it on fourth down 34 times, which was third in the NFL.
But the Chargers went for it on 31.5 percent of their fourth downs, the highest percentage in the league.
Staley explained his mindset regarding such situations in an interview with Daniel Popper of The Athletic.
“There has to be a fearlessness to play in this game, and what I wanted to establish was that,” Staley says. “The history of this team when I got here, it was like someone’s going to get hurt, they’re going to blow a lead, something catastrophic is going to happen. There’s this ‘Chargering’ thing. There’s all of these external factors that I know in my life, they’re just all excuses. They’re just all excuses.
“And so, how do you change that? Well, you have to do things different, you have to have a different approach. … Our mindset’s going to be on us, it’s not going to be on the opponent. It’s going to be on us. So creating that fearless mindset of, we are going to be aggressive, we’re going to put the ball in our hands, we’re going to trust our guys to make plays.
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“If we lose, we’re going to do it on our terms, not someone else’s terms.”
There is certainly an argument to be made for leaving your offense on the field during a fourth down, but some feel the Chargers overdid it last season, and in doing so, possibly cost themselves a playoff berth.
Live By The Sword, Die By The Sword?
For most of the NFL’s century-plus history, teams usually only went for it on fourth down if it was in a desperate situation at the end of a game where it was down to its last chance.
But over the last several years, that has been changing, as fourth-down attempts have been rising, as have fourth-down conversion rates.
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Analytics, which have taken over multiple team sports over the past decade-plus, has been a big factor in this change in philosophy.
Staley is absolutely right when he says that fearlessness must be present in order to win in the NFL, even more than in baseball, basketball, hockey or any other team sport.
But sometimes, one’s aggressiveness can go from his greatest asset to his greatest flaw, as it can be a double-edged sword.
With quarterback Justin Herbert running and gunning his way to a Pro Bowl appearance in just his second pro season, L.A. forged an 8-5 record and had a real shot at finishing first in the AFC West.
Its next contest in Week 15 versus the Kansas City Chiefs was billed as the that would likely decide the division winner.
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But in the first half, the Chargers failed to convert on two fourth-down situations inside the Kansas City 10-yard line, and they trailed 14-10 at intermission.
They failed on another fourth-down conversion attempt in the second half, and given that they lost 34-28 in overtime after leading 21-13 in the fourth quarter at one point, those failed attempts look bad in retrospect.
Then came the season-finale versus the Las Vegas Raiders, which was a doozy.
The Chargers converted six of seven fourth-down attempts, but the one they failed on was one even Staley may have wanted to take back.
The argument in his favor is that Herbert is an MVP-caliber QB who is turning into a clutch signal-caller, as evidenced in that contest against the Raiders.
(2/3) #Chargers game-tying TD drive vs #Raiders by Justin Herbert as time expires:
Drive 2: 19 plays, 83 yds, 2:06 6/19 completions 7 (!) QB pressures Missed play by Ekeler 4 drops pic.twitter.com/JCJL3Xqcz0
According to Marc Stein, an NBA executive was hearing that Kevin Durant was more apt to retire than play for the Brooklyn Nets again. However, Durant went to Twitter to shoot down that notion, tweeting quote: ‘I know most people will believe unnamed sources over me but if it’s anyone out there that’ll listen, I don’t plan on retiring anytime soon.’ Durant would go on to say the situation as a whole is quote: ‘comical.’ Shannon Sharpe weighs in on the soap opera-like reports, including why it is not a good look on KD.
Since the start of the second half, they have stumbled out of the gates and have lost a few very important series, the most notable ones being the series losses to the Seattle Mariners and the sweep they suffered at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals.
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That recent slide has caused them to lose their hold on the best record in baseball and in the American League.
However, there is one silver lining to all of this, as pointed out by Bob Nightengale.
The Yankees remain at the top of the AL East and lead it by 10 games.
The #Yankees' slide continues, losing for the 10th time in the last 12 games, 4-0 to the #Rays. Their offense has gone AWOL. They have been shut out 4 times in their last 9 games, scoring just 8 runs in the last six games. The good news: They still lead the AL East by 10 games.