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Saints vs. Bills odds, line: 2021 Thanksgiving Day NFL picks, predictions from top model on 130-91 roll

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A battle between second-place teams will close out the 2021 Thanksgiving Day NFL schedule when the Buffalo Bills (6-4) and New Orleans Saints (5-5) face off. Both squads are currently in second place in their respective divisions after Week 11. This matchup will feature two top-10 defenses in the league, as Buffalo is ranked first in total defense, while New Orleans is 10th.

Kickoff from Caesars Superdome is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Buffalo is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Saints vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 45. Before locking in your Bills vs. Saints picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on an incredible 130-91 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

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The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Bills vs. Saints 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Bills vs. Saints:

  • Bills vs. Saints spread: Buffalo -6.5
  • Bills vs. Saints over-under: 45 points
  • Bills vs. Saints money line: Buffalo -270, New Orleans +220
  • BUF: Bills are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games following an ATS loss
  • NO: Under is 8-0-1 in Saints’ last nine Thursday games 

Why the Bills can cover

Stefon Diggs has been sensational since coming over to Buffalo. He is the leading pass-catcher for the Bills and one of the best in the league. He is ninth in receptions (60), ninth in receiving yards (773), and tied for 10th in receiving touchdowns (six). The 2020 First-Team All-Pro is a silky smooth route-runner with hands like glue.

The Maryland product is also a deep threat for Allen and company, reeling in eight passes of 20-plus yards. Diggs also has 41 first down receptions, which are a team-high. He is averaging 77.3 receiving yards per game. The 2015 fifth-round pick has gone over 100 receiving yards twice thus far. In their Week 10 matchup against the New York Jets, Diggs finished with a season-high 162 yards on eight receptions with a score.

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans is ranked 10th in total defense with 342 total yards per game. This unit is led by linebacker Demario Davis, who has a team-high 65 total tackles, including 44 solo. The 2012 third-round pick is first on the team with 10 tackles for loss. Davis has logged at least eight tackles in four games, including two games with double-digit stops.

Marshon Lattimore is the No. 1 corner on this squad and is tied for fifth in the NFL with 10 pass deflections. The Ohio State product has secured 33 total tackles with one interception. Six-time Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan is a strong defender coming off the edge. Jordan is second on the team with five tackles for loss while logging three sacks.

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How to make Bills vs. Saints picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 45 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s Bills vs. Saints picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Bills vs. Saints on Thanksgiving night? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Saints spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,900 on NFL picks, and find out.





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