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Rookie of the Year: Who will be named MLB’s top young guns for 2021?

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Prominent rookies come in all ages, shapes and sizes, as evidenced by this year’s Rookie of the Year finalists.

The AL representatives come from the past two pennant-winning clubs (the rich are getting richer, it seems), while the NL side is highlighted by one of the best rookie pitching seasons of this millennium.

Here’s a closer look at all six young guns up for Rookie of the Year honours:

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Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior writer. Together, they bring you the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast in the league, covering off all the latest news with opinion and analysis, as well as interviews with other insiders and team members.

AL Rookie of the Year candidates

Randy Arozarena — Tampa Bay Rays

141 G | .274 BA | 20 HR | 69 RBI | 131 OPS+ | 3.3 fWAR

Wait, seriously? This guy again? The one who poured kerosene all over the 2020 playoffs and lit a match?

Yes, the same Arozarena who blasted an MLB-playoff-record 10 home runs last October is still eligible to win AL Rookie of the Year. He debuted in 2019, shined in the 2020 playoffs, and then compiled an excellent first full season in 2021.

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The 26-year-old was one of just 10 players to produce 20-plus home runs and steals this year, though he was also caught stealing a league-high 10 times. He was the Rookie of the Year frontrunner entering the season, and to his credit, he lived up to that hype by at least becoming a finalist for the award.

Then again, he might not even be the most deserving player from his own team …

Wander Franco — Tampa Bay Rays

70 G | .288 BA | 7 HR | 39 RBI | 129 OPS+ | 2.5 fWAR

Franco was the consensus top prospect in baseball when 2021 began, and it was easy to see why once he finally debuted. The 20-year-old smacked a home run in his very first game.

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About a month later, Franco ripped off a 43-game on-base streak, tying Frank Robinson’s MLB record for a player aged 20 or younger. In that time, the shortstop batted .329 with 24 extra-base hits.

We’re talking about a guy who still can’t (legally) buy a Bud Light at the ballpark. A guy who hadn’t played above A-ball prior to this year. His 70-game sample might not be enough to win the award, but Franco was almost certainly the most valuable per-game rookie in the majors this season.

Luis Garcia — Houston Astros

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30 G (28 GS) | 155.1 IP | 3.48 ERA | 167 K | 123 ERA+ | 3.1 fWAR

Garcia paced MLB rooks in innings, wins (11) and strikeouts, and he aims to be the first Astros pitcher to win this award. He could also become the first full-time pitcher to win on the AL side since Detroit’s Michael Fulmer in 2016 (two-way star Shohei Ohtani won in 2018).

Our most recent impression of Garcia is not the most flattering: he allowed 14 runs in 17 2/3 playoff innings (7.13 ERA), which includes a pair of losses in the World Series.

But that shouldn’t cloud his accomplishments during the regular season, when his stellar play contributed to a stout Astros rotation.

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NL Rookie of the Year candidates

Trevor Rogers — Miami Marlins

25 GS | 133.0 IP | 2.64 ERA | 157 K | 158 ERA+ | 4.2 fWAR

Starting pitchers strive for consistency from outing to outing, but few find it in the early years of their careers (if at all). And yet Rogers found it right away, in his first full season, which led to an all-star bid and potentially some end-of-season hardware.

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The 6-foot-5 left-hander allowed two or fewer earned runs in 22 of 25 starts, and he led all qualified rookies in ERA and strikeouts-per-nine (10.62). His ERA was the third-lowest among rookies with 130-plus innings in this millennium (only Marlins’ José Fernández, 2013, and Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, 2018, had lower ones).

Fernández won Rookie of the Year, but Buehler did not. For whatever that’s worth.

Jonathan India — Cincinnati Reds

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150 G | .269 BA | 21 HR | 69 RBI | 113 OPS+ | 3.9 fWAR

India was the final member of the 2018 draft’s top-five to debut, and he was well worth the wait. The second baseman finished fifth in the NL in on-base percentage (.376), just ahead of fellow Red Joey Votto, and he had the highest OPS (.835) among rookies with 250-plus at-bats.

The last time Cincinnati celebrated a Rookie of the Year winner (Scott Williamson, 1999), India was about a month shy of his third birthday. So he probably doesn’t remember that.

And he certainly wouldn’t remember Chris Sabo, the last position player to win the award for the Reds (1988). Cincinnati appears to be destined for a rebuild, evidenced by the Luis Castillo trade rumours, but India could be a cornerstone for many years to come.

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Dylan Carlson — St. Louis Cardinals

149 G | .266 BA | 18 HR | 65 RBI | 117 OPS+ | 2.8 fWAR

It’s pretty clear based on the above numbers (and others) that Carlson will likely finish third in this group. But his first full season, after debuting in 2020, was worth the recognition of a top-three finalist.

A key to Carlson’s value in 2021 was his versatility in the Cardinals’ lineup. He started in all three outfield spots for the Cardinals at least eight times — including 50-plus starts in both center and right — and he made starts in seven of the nine batting order spots.

And during St. Louis’s epic 17-game win streak in September, Carlson turned up his game, posting a .283/.310/.547 slash line with seven extra-base hits and 12 RBIs.

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Maple Leafs Takeaways: Knies shines, Samsonov solid in pre-season debut

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Even by pre-season standards, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ fourth game of the exhibition schedule asked a lot of its viewers.

First off, neither the Leafs nor the Montreal Canadiens squad they were visiting suited up much in the way of stars. On the Toronto side, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly all sat this one out. Montreal, meanwhile, was without top gunners Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Kirby Dach.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, this contest wasn’t exactly rich with Grade A chances and nobody found the net at all until midway through the second, when the Leafs broke through in a game Toronto ultimately won 2-1 at the Bell Centre. 

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But while there figures to be a more entertaining game played Saturday night, when these two teams meet again in Montreal with the top dogs in the lineup, there was still something to glean from the Blue and White performance on Friday.

In particular, a couple guys trying to carve out different roles on the squad showed well and gave the Toronto coaching staff and management something further to mull with their play.

Their performances headline our takeaways from this lo-fi clash of the forever rivals.

ALL EYES ON KNIES

Matthew Knies has looked like a steal basically from the moment Toronto drafted him in the second round two years ago and his first training camp with the team is only solidifying that notion. 

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On the heels of an impressive game against the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday — when he made a wonderful play to feed Sam Lafferty for a shorthanded goal — Knies was easily the best Maple Leaf forward on the ice versus Montreal.

Even before he ripped home his first pre-season tally to open the scoring, you couldn’t miss the 20-year-old American. 

In the first period — with the Habs on the power play — Knies stripped Jesse Ylonen of the puck in the neutral zone, charged back to the Montreal goal and dropped a nice feed to Fraser Minten for a quality shorthanded chance. 

Early in the second, Knies drove through the neutral zone and forced Habs defenceman Gustav Lindstrom into a penalty when he couldn’t handle the former’s speed. On the ensuing power play, Knies immediately made a nice feed to Timothy Liljegren for a dangerous one-timer.

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His goal was certainly an impressive display of skill as Knies — once again on the attack despite his team being down a man — took a feed from Minten (who had a strong game himself) at the top of the circle. Knies quickly shuffled the puck, then snapped off a shot that blew past Cayden Primeau on the glove side.

Even in the dying seconds of the game, with Montreal pressing for the equalizer, Knies was the one who knocked the puck clear of the Toronto net and secured the win.

Everyone knew this kid had talent coming into camp. But the awareness he’s shown in all aspects of the game bodes well for what he can immediately bring to one of the Leafs’ top lines, to say nothing of what he can become two or three years from now.

GREGOR IS GAME

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He might not be fighting for a primetime spot in the lineup like Knies, but Noah Gregor continues to make a case for himself as a viable bottom-six candidate. What he had in common with Knies on this night was the fact some of his best work came with the Leafs down a man. In the first period, he showed great awareness to hang down low by the crease and clear a loose puck before any Hab could pounce. Then, in the middle frame, his speed was on display as he picked Logan Mailloux’s pocket and created a decent shorthanded scoring chance for himself.

Granted, Gregor was on the ice when the Habs finally scored their lone goal of the game with fewer than five minutes remaining. Still, it was an overall good showing for the former Shark as he tries to impress on a professional tryout.

SAMSONOV’S SCORELESS DEBUT

Ilya Samsonov, the presumptive No. 1 goalie for the Maple Leafs, turned in a clean sheet during his first 40 minutes of the pre-season.

By no means was Samsonov tested by the toothless Montreal attack, but it’s still encouraging to see the guy who, at this point, projects to get the bulk of the starts in Toronto get his feet wet with a good outing.

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Samsonov saw 17 shots through two periods and the only puck to get past a Leaf netminder on this night came courtesy of Josh Anderson when, with fewer than five minutes remaining in the game, the GTA boy ripped a one-timer from the slot that Keith Petruzzelli really had no chance of stopping. 

CONOR TIMMINS IS BLANKED — BUT BARELY

Conor Timmins entered his third pre-season game having picked up a cool six-pack of points from the back end through his first couple outings. Ultimately, Timmins didn’t wind up on the scoresheet in this affair, but he sure came close when, moments after the Canadiens had pulled within one, the right-shot D-man streaked into the offensive zone and took a beautiful seam pass from Nick Abruzzese and wired a shot that appeared to ding both cross-bar and post.

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Moments later, with Toronto still protecting a one-goal lead, Timmins made a strong defensive play to knock the puck away from Ylonen after the Montreal forward had danced into the Leafs zone and was looking dangerous as he bore down on Petruzzelli.

Blue line conversations about the Blue and White are going to get a little more interesting if Timmins continues to look both threatening on the attack and capable in his own zone.

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Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Highlights

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Check out the best moments from the Miami Marlins’ 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, September 29th.



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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Highlights

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Check out the best moments from the Toronto Blue Jays’ 11-4 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, September 29th.



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