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Ravens vs. Dolphins odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 128-88 roll

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John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens (6-2) head to Hard Rock Stadium to battle Brian Flores and the Miami Dolphins (2-7) on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens have been playing extremely well lately and have won six out of their last seven games. The Dolphins may be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa due to a fracture in the middle finger of his throwing hand. In Week 9 against the Houston Texans, veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett stepped in and came away with a 17-9 victory.  

Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Baltimore is favored by 7.5 points in the latest Ravens vs. Dolphins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 46.5. Before locking in your Dolphins vs. Ravens picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,600 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 10 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-88 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

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The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Ravens vs. Dolphins 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Ravens vs. Dolphins: 

  • Ravens vs. Dolphins spread: Ravens -7.5
  • Ravens vs. Dolphins over-under: 46.5 points
  • Ravens vs. Dolphins money line: BAL -380, MIA +300
  • BAL: Ravens are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games in Miami
  • MIA: Under has hit in three of last four Dolphins games

Why Lamar Jackson and the Ravens can cover

Marquise Brown is the leading pass-catcher in Baltimore’s air attack. He has caught a team-high 37 passes for 566 yards with six scores and is averaging a team-high 85.3 yards per game. The Oklahoma product has reeled in 14 grabs of 20-plus yards. He played well against the Minnesota Vikings and caught a season-high nine receptions for 166 yards.

Brown has game-breaking speed that can pose a threat to any defense, and Miami allows 280.9 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL. The Florida native has recorded three games on the year with over 100 receiving yards. Brown has also caught a touchdown grab in five games.

Why Jaylen Waddle and the Dolphins can cover

The Dolphins finally snapped their seven-game losing streak with a Week 9 win against the Houston Texans. Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was forced to miss this game due to a fracture in the middle finger of his throwing hand. Veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett stepped up and led his team to victory. He went 26-of-43 for 244 yards with one passing touchdown. Jaylen Waddle led the team with eight catches for 83 yards.

Miami’s defense forced Houston to commit four turnovers. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor struggled and went 24-of-43 for 240 yards with three interceptions. Taylor was under duress all afternoon and was sacked five times. Miami’s defense flashed its ability to get pressure on the quarterback and cause turnovers, both of which will be essential on Thursday Night Football.

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How to make Ravens vs. Dolphins picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 45 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Ravens vs. Dolphins pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Dolphins vs. Ravens on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Ravens spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,600 on its NFL picks, and find out.





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Drew Timme Q&A: Talking with Gonzaga basketball's All-American senior

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Gonzaga All-American Drew Timme on why he decided to return to school, his quest for the title and more.



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MLB home run record: List of most home runs in a season, single-season leaders as Aaron Judge ties Roger Maris

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Yankees slugger Aaron Judge hit his 61st home run of the season Wednesday night against the Blue Jays to rewrite baseball’s history books. His 61st home run tied him with Roger Maris for the American League single-season record. 

Judge is having a truly historic campaign, as he leads the majors in home runs, runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, total bases, WAR and several other categories. 

One might have a few questions about that mark, so let’s get down and dirty with the all-time leaderboards. Just the facts here. 

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Most single-season home runs, MLB

1. Barry Bonds, 73, 2001
2. Mark McGwire, 70, 1998
3. Sammy Sosa, 66, 1998
4. Mark McGwire, 65, 1999
5. Sammy Sosa, 64, 2001
6. Sammy Sosa, 63, 1999
T7. Aaron Judge, 61, 2022
T7. Roger Maris, 61, 1961
9. Babe Ruth, 60, 1927
T10. Giancarlo Stanton, 59, 2017
T10. Babe Ruth, 59, 1921

Most single-season home runs, American League

T1. Aaron Judge, 61, 2022
T1. Roger Maris, 61, 1961
3. Babe Ruth, 60, 1927
T4. Hank Greenberg, 58, 1938
T4. Jimmie Foxx, 58, 1932
6. Alex Rodriguez, 57, 2002
T7. Ken Griffey Jr., 56, 1998
T7. Ken Griffey, Jr., 56, 1997
T9. Jose Bautista, 54, 2010
T9. Alex Rodriguez, 54, 2007
T9. David Ortiz, 54, 2006
T9. Mickey Mantle, 54, 1961
T9. Babe Ruth, 54, 1928
T9. Babe Ruth, 54, 1920

Most single-season home runs, National League

1. Barry Bonds, 73, 2001
2. Mark McGwire, 70, 1998
3. Sammy Sosa, 66, 1998
4. Mark McGwire, 65, 1999
5. Sammy Sosa, 64, 2001
6. Sammy Sosa, 63, 1999
7. Giancarlo Stanton, 59, 2017
8. Ryan Howard, 58, 2006
9. Luis Gonzalez, 57, 2001
10. Hack Wilson, 56, 1930 

Fastest to 60 home runs (by team games)

1. Barry Bonds, 141 games, 2001
2. Mark McGwire, 142 games, 1998
3. Aaron Judge, 147 games, 2022
4. Sammy Sosa, 148 games, 1999
5. Sammy Sosa, 149 games, 1998
6. Babe Ruth, 154 games, 1927
7. Mark McGwire, 155 games, 1999
8. Sammy Sosa, 157 games, 2001
9. Roger Maris, 159 games, 1961

Fastest to 61 home runs (by team games)

T1. Barry Bonds, 144, 2001
T1. Mark McGwire, 144, 1998
3. Sammy Sosa, 149, 1999
4. Sammy Sosa, 150, 1998
5. Aaron Judge, 155, 2022
6. Mark McGwire, 156, 1999
7. Sammy Sosa, 158, 2001
8. Roger Maris, 163, 1961

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Fastest to 62 home runs (by team games)

1. Barry Bonds, 144, 2001
2. Mark McGwire, 145, 1998
3. Sammy Sosa, 150, 1998
T4. Mark McGwire, 157, 1999
T4. Sammy Sosa, 157, 1999
6. Sammy Sosa, 160, 2001

So, as you can see, what Judge is doing in 2022 is truly historic. He has seven games left to pass Maris and set a new American League standard for single-season homer excellence.



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SEC college football picks, odds in Week 5: Arkansas stays tight with Alabama, Georgia takes out frustration

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The calendar will flip from September to October as the Week 5 college football action takes center stage on Saturday, which means that SEC division title races are starting take shape. No. 2 Alabama will head to Fayetteville, Arkansas, to take on No. 20 Arkansas in a battle between SEC foes. It was anticipated this could be a battle of undefeated title contenders, but the Razorbacks’ loss to Texas A&M last week erased that possibility. No. 7 Kentucky will travel to Oxford, Mississippi, to take on No. 14 Ole Miss in a clash of cross-division, undefeated teams that are looking to break through on the national stage. 

There are intriguing games for other reasons, too. Auburn will take on LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium in a game that could determine the future of Tigers coach Bryan Harsin. The second-year coach was rumored to be on the brink of receiving a pink slip had the Tigers lost to Missouri last week, but they escaped in overtime in one of the sloppiest games of the year. 

What else is going on around the conference in Week 5? Let’s take a spin around the league and make some picks in this week’s edition of SEC Smothered and Covered.

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Hurricane Ian hitting the East Coast has forced changes to SEC games in Week 5. Keep up to date with all of the movement at this link here

Appetizer: Drew Sanders, the double agent?

Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders has established himself as one of the best players in the conference regardless of position. The former five-star prospect out of Denton, Texas, has 31 tackles on the season and is tied for third in the SEC in tackles for loss per game (1.63). He’s also a former member of the Alabama Crimson Tide. 

Could he be a secret agent? Well, not officially, but Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman knows that his star transfer isn’t going to be surprised by anything he sees.

“I would assume, for him, there would be some familiarity with what Bama is doing,” Pittman said. “We’ll try to downplay that as much as possible, because it is about shedding blocks and tackling and doing his assignment.”

This was shaping up to be a battle of undefeated teams prior to last weekend, but a reeling Texas A&M squad and a Hogs’ field goal attempt off the top of the goal post put an end to that plan. It didn’t erase the interest level in this game, though. Pittman’s squad absolutely has to win Saturday’s game vs. the Crimson Tide, otherwise its hopes of winning the West will disappear like a rack of ribs at a tailgate party. 

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Main course: Chris Rodriguez’s impact

Kentucky is typically a juggernaut at developing stud offensive linemen who are effective as run and pass blockers. This year … not so much. The Wildcats have given up more sacks than any other team in the SEC (16) and allowed Northern Illinois to sack quarterback Will Levis five times last weekend. Nothing against the Huskies, but that shouldn’t happen. 

They will get running back Chris Rodriguez back from his early-season suspension this week, though, and he should at least provide more of a threat in the running game to help Levis work off play-action. The preseason All-SEC selection rushed for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns last season while adding three touchdowns as a receiver out of the backfield. Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said Monday that Rodriguez has prepared to make an impact over the last couple of weeks.

“For Chris, it was just a matter of managing him while he was out. Just getting him the reps that we needed to. The last week or two, as I mentioned last week, he was getting reps with the first and second team — mainly the second team or different quarterbacks just to make sure he wasn’t totally removed from practicing our plays, along with staying in shape, being on the scout team, doing whatever was necessary for staying in good shape.” 

Dessert: Do or die for Bryan Harsin

Reports surfaced last week that Harsin could be fired as early as the day after the Missouri game if his team lost to the visiting Tigers. That didn’t happen; Auburn used a Missouri missed field goal at the end of regulation and a walk-off touchback in overtime to escape with a win. Or a “non-loss,” considering how sloppy the game was. 

In essence, it was the worst possible scenario for all parties. Harsin’s incredibly ugly win against Missouri the week after getting blown out by Penn State made it impossible for the powers-that-be to get rid of him last Sunday, which also gave him another week to “coach back into” his job if he can figure things out. Could that start this week against LSU? Harsin’s Tigers are nearly double-digit underdogs, which suggests that there isn’t much faith in him surviving beyond this weekend. Even if he does, Georgia looms next weekend prior to the bye week. 

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Simply put, Harsin needs to dominate LSU and upset Georgia to stay employed. Otherwise, those who staged the attempted coup in February will likely get their way and move into a new era of Auburn football.

Picks

Straight up: 38-8 | Against the spread: 19-21-1
*Previous picks were made on Instagram since SEC Smothered & Covered starts in Week 3

No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss

Featured Game | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats

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The Rebels have settled on Jaxson Dart as their No. 1 quarterback, and he will provide a nice complement through the air and on the ground to a rushing attack that is second-to-none in the conference (280.75 YPG). That will wear down a Kentucky defense that isn’t as deep or consistent as it has been in previous years. The Rebels defense, which is third in the SEC in tackles for loss per game (7.0), will keep Levis in third-and-long situations — leading to an Ole Miss cover. Pick: Ole Miss (-6.5)

No. 2 Alabama at No. 20 Arkansas

Featured Game | Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

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The 17.5-point spread is interesting, due in large part to the hook. If a 17-point Bama win cashes an Arkansas ticket, I’m all in for the Hogs. Alabama has played one-score games in four of its last five true road tilts, and the combination of Hogs quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Raheim Sanders will bust enough big plays to at least keep this game close into the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide will win it by two touchdowns when all is said and done but won’t get the cover. Pick: Arkansas (+17.5)

Featured Game | Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies

The Bulldogs are home favorites over a ranked Aggies team for good reason. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 44.4% of their passes on third downs (17th nationally), which sets up well against an Aggies team that will be without star wide receiver Ainias Smith. Texas A&M topped Arkansas essentially because of a fumbled punt return and a freak fumble recovery/scoop-and-score, but even those won’t save them in the land of the cowbells. Pick: Mississippi State (-3.5)

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LSU at Auburn

Featured Game | Auburn Tigers vs. LSU Tigers

Auburn’s offensive line has been a disaster this year, and now its quarterback position is an unmitigated disaster. Meanwhile, LSU’s defense has given up just 39 plays of 10 or more yards this season (tied with Georgia for third in the SEC). It’s going to make Auburn put together multiple sustained drives, and that’s unlikely considering Harsin forgot that running back Tank Bigsby exists during the majority of the Missouri game. The visiting Tigers will win by double-digits. Pick: LSU (-9)

No. 1 Georgia at Missouri

Featured Game | Missouri Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

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The Bulldogs have to be embarrassed after Kent State stayed within 10 points into the fourth quarter last week, and they’ll take it out on Missouri on Saturday night in Columbia. The Tigers average a league-worst 5.62 yards per play, and the way to hang with the Bulldogs is to capitalize on shot plays. Coach Kirby Smart’s crew will take out its frustration on Missouri and win by at least 30 points. Pick: Georgia (-28)

SEC teams vs. FCS opponents

*No lines have been published

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 5, and which top-10 favorite will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned more than $3,100 in profit over the past six-plus seasons — and find out.

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