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Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds, line: 2021 college football picks, Week 12 predictions from proven model

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The No. 7 Michigan State Spartans will go for another huge win on Saturday when they visit the fourth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in a crucial Big Ten matchup. The Spartans (9-1, 6-1) were riding high after an emotional win against rival Michigan three weeks ago but stumbled the following week, losing to Purdue. They righted the ship somewhat in a 40-21 win against Maryland last Saturday. The Buckeyes (9-0, 7-1) beat that Purdue team 59-31 last Saturday for their eighth consecutive win and have the nation’s highest-scoring offense. Ohio State has owned this series in recent years, winning five in a row against the Spartans, including a 52-12 road victory last season.

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Buckeyes as the 19-point favorites in its latest Michigan State vs. Ohio State odds, and the over-under for total points is 68.5. Before making any Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 12 of the 2021 season on a 36-23 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

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Now, the model has locked in on Ohio State vs. Michigan State and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Michigan State vs. Ohio State:  

  • Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. spread: Buckeyes -19 
  • Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. over-under: 68.5 points 
  • Ohio St. vs. Michigan St. moneyline: Buckeyes -1100, Spartans +700 
  • OSU: It is 14-8-1 ATS in 23 Big Ten games since 2019 
  • MSU: It is 9-14 ATS in its past 23 conference games

Featured Game | Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans

Why the Buckeyes can cover

OSU is 4-1 against the spread in its last five after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. The offense has been lighting it up behind QB C.J. Stroud and RB TreVeyon Henderson. The Buckeyes average 46.3 points to lead FBS, and Stroud has 30 TD passes (tied for 5th in the nation) while Henderson has rushed for 14. The freshman QB has 3,036 yards, with only five interceptions and seven sacks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 1,027 yards (17.4 per catch), and fellow wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave have combined for 1,521 yards and 20 TDs.      

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The Spartans defense could be in big trouble, as it yields 444 yards per game (111th) and 329 against the pass (130th). It ranks 20th against the run, but Henderson has 1,035 rushing yards, averaging 7.3 yards per carry, and MSU likely will be preoccupied with Ohio State’s other weapons. The OSU defense is even more stingy against the run, allowing 107 yards per game (14th), so Spartans star Kenneth Walker III could get bottled up. The favorite has covered the spread in four straight meetings, and MSU has won just three times in the past 17 matchups. 

Why the Spartans can cover

MSU is 4-2 ATS against ranked opponents over the past two seasons and is 7-1-2 ATS overall this season. An offense led by Walker has proven to be dangerous. He has an FBS-best 1,473 yards and 17 TDs on the ground, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Quarterback Payton Thorne also can have big days, and he has 2,460 yards and 17 TD passes. He faces the nation’s 108th-ranked passing defense (261.5 yards per game), and he has the weapons in receivers Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor to exploit it.

Reed has 829 yards (18.4 per catch) and seven TDs, while Nailor has 587 (18.9) and six scores. Running back Connor Heyward (22 receptions) and tight end Tyler Hunt (12) are valuable outlets. The MSU defense has struggled to stop opponents, but it hasn’t been giving up a ton of points. It is 41st in the nation in allowing 22.5 points per game, while the offense scores 34.6 (26th). The Spartans also have 32 sacks, tied for 14th-most in FBS, led by Jacub Panasiuk and Jeff Pietrowski with 5.5 apiece. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

How to make Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks

The model is going under on the total, projecting 63 combined points. It has also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Michigan State vs. Ohio State pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Saturday’s Ohio State vs. Michigan State Big Ten matchup? And which side of the spread is hitting more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. Ohio State spread to back Saturday, all from the advanced model on a 36-23 run on its top-rated college football side picks, and find out.

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