What an absurd week in the NFL. It was one of those Sundays you can’t really rationalize, and one that makes you want to be careful the next week. The Denver Broncos completely dominated the Dallas Cowboys, who suffered their first loss against the spread this season, and Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills were defeated by Urban Meyer and the Jacksonville Jaguars in a field-goal battle. No one could have predicted that.
Looking ahead at this week, can the Bills bounce back against the legendary Mike White? And will Colt McCoy again start for the Arizona Cardinals and register another win against the lowly Carolina Panthers? How will Aaron Rodgers look coming off of COVID-19 and his dramatic week off the field? It’s sure to be another wild weekend.
Let’s jump into the picks. Peep the season stats below.
Top five picks record: 26-19
Overall ATS record: 67-68-1
Straight up record: 86-50
2020 ATS record: 125-120-9 (2 official picks missed due to COVID rescheduling)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Since their surprising loss to the New York Jets, the Titans have gone 5-0. Their last four wins were impressive, coming against the Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Rams. They were underdogs in all four. Tennessee is now 7-2 against the spread this year and they just keep winning.
This Sunday could be a letdown spot against a good defense, but there are two developments that made me want to make the Titans a best bet: One, Trevor Siemian is not a legitimate starting quarterback, and two, I think there’s something going on with Alvin Kamara. On Tuesday, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reported that the Saints tried out three running backs, and that he had heard whispers Kamara had gotten banged up. Sure enough, Kamara did not practice on Wednesday due to a knee injury. He is obviously the most important player on offense for the Saints, and without him, this line should move.
The pick: Titans -3
Projected score: Titans 24-16
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Kyler Murray may return this week, but I don’t even care. Colt McCoy beat the 49ers last week by more than Murray did earlier in the year (14 points). He didn’t have a perfect game but he had the support of two under-appreciated running backs in James Conner and Eno Benjamin, as well as a defense that is playing great ball.
The Panthers lost Sam Darnold for a few weeks, but with how he’s been playing that may be a good thing. P.J. Walker will get the start, but he doesn’t have a great offensive line to protect him. Carolina’s last two losses have come by at least 18 points, and the Panthers are averaging just 9.3 points per game over their last three contests.
The pick: Cardinals -10.5
Projected score: Cardinals 30-10
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Green Bay Packers
It won’t be official until Sunday morning, but it looks like the Seahawks and Packers will have their starting QBs back this week. Green Bay has won nine straight home meetings, including postseason, against Seattle. That nine-game losing streak to the Packers on the road is the longest road losing streak in Seahawks history vs. a single opponent.
The Packers are 8-1 against the spread (3-0 at home), and they recorded probably their most impressive ATS victories over the last two weeks. A couple weeks ago, the Packers upset the previously unbeaten Cardinals without their top three receivers, and then Jordan Love covered the spread against the Chiefs last Sunday. Getting Russell Wilson back is important for the Seahawks, but I think this Packers team is one of the best in the NFL.
The pick: Packers -3
Projected score: Packers 28-21
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Kansas City Chiefs
I hate making the Chiefs a best bet, I really do. They are 2-7 against the spread this season, but are at least 2-2 on the road this year. The Raiders have had an emotional year with the losses of Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs III, but it feels like an on-field downfall could be coming. They were able to run past the Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles, but lost a lead in the second half against the New York Giants on Sunday. The Chiefs on the other hand could be ready to start a win streak. The defense has noticeably improved. They allowed an average of 32.6 points per game over their first five contests this season, but have allowed just 16 points per game over the last four.
The pick: Chiefs -2.5
Projected score: Chiefs 27-23
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Los Angeles Rams
Both of these NFC West teams are coming off of embarrassing losses, but the 49ers’ loss to the Cardinals was much more embarrassing in my opinion. Colt McCoy and James Conner made the 49ers look silly, and did so without many important players like Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green. The 49ers have won the past four games in this rivalry, but San Francisco enters this game on an eight-game losing streak at home. Like the Cardinals, the Rams are undefeated on the road this season.
Matthew Stafford had his worst game as a Ram on Monday night, but I have faith he can bounce back. It’s also worth mentioning that the L.A. defense did not play bad at all last week. They allowed just 194 yards of total offense to the Titans, and only two touchdown drives that were at least seven plays long. Rams turnovers ruined this matchup. The way I look at it, the Rams are the much better team.
The pick: Rams -4
Projected score: Rams 27-20
Other Week 10 picks
Ravens (-7.5) 28-17 over Dolphins
Bills 27-17 over Jets (+12.5)
Buccaneers (-9.5) 28-16 over Washington
Colts (-10.5) 30-14 over Jaguars
Steelers (-9) 20-10 over Lions
Cowboys 30-23 over Falcons (+9)
Browns (+2.5) 26-23 over Patriots
Chargers (-3) 26-21 over Vikings
Broncos (-2.5) 29-25 over Eagles