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Future Considerations: USA players who could shape top of NHL Draft

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1 month ago

April 26, 2023

nigemord@gmail.com

The USNTDP has been producing elite level talent for several years. Prospects who have become household names include:

• Auston Matthews
• Jack Hughes
• Quinn Hughes
• Jack Eichel
• Trevor Zegras
• Cole Caulfield

The current USNTDP roster is projected to have three players selected in the top 10 of the NHL draft this June in Nashville, and they have been putting on a show early on at the U18 Worlds.

The games will get harder in the medal round, but Team USA has looked unbeatable through its first four games.

Here’s a look at their top performers so far and the NHL teams that could be targeting those players come draft day:

Gabe Perreault, Forward, 5-foot-11, 165 pounds
Ranked 10^th by NHL Central Scouting among North American skaters

Perreault recently broke Auston Matthews’ scoring record at the USNTDP. He’s up to 123 points on the season. He has elite puck skill and the ability to make plays in small areas. He’s tied for the tournament lead with five goals and 10 assists in four games. The only area of concern I have is his skating. Similar to his father Yanic, who played over 500 NHL games, Gabe isn’t a pure burner in open ice. His mechanics are pretty sound, however, so I’m not overly concerned. He just has to put in the work. I do appreciate his effort up and down the ice at this tournament so far. He hasn’t only been producing offence.

Projection: First Round Pick (12-18)

Possible destinations: Arizona, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Calgary, Detroit

Will Smith, Forward, 6-foot, 172 pounds

Ranked 3^rd by NHL Central Scouting among North American skaters

Smith always seems to have the puck on his stick. He’s noticeable offensively every shift I watch him. He’s elusive in small areas. He seems to either slide through on his own, with the puck on his stick, or slide passes to linemates that put them in prime scoring position as a result of his feed. Some scouts have a concern about his three-zone detail and effort via offensive zone exits. I’m not concerned. He’s way too talented to start dissecting too aggressively for his defensive awareness. As he matures, he will become more accountable at the next level(s). Smith is tied for the lead in scoring at this tournament. He will play to his identity at the NHL level someday. He’s a first line/top unit power-play NHL prospect.

Projection: First Round Pick (3-5)

Possible destinations: Anaheim, Columbus, Chicago, San Jose, Montreal, Arizona

Ryan Leonard, Forward – 5-foot-11, 181 pounds
Ranked 5^th by NHL Central Scouting among North American skaters

Leonard trails Perreault and Smith for the scoring lead in the tournament, but he’s played the most complete game of the three in the preliminary round. Every time I’ve viewed Leonard late in the season he’s established a new level of quality play. His element leans offence, but he works hard in all three zones and tracks back to assist with defending. He’s being used in all situations at the tournament. It wouldn’t surprise me if Leonard ends up as high as fifth on some NHL teams’ year-end draft list. He’s on the rise as the season nears its conclusion.

Projection: First Round (Pick 5-8)

Possible destinations: Montreal, Arizona, Philadelphia, Washington, Detroit

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ADDITIONAL PLAYER OBSERVATIONS

With the preliminary round wrapped up, the quarter-finals are set to begin on Thursday at the Men’s World U18 Hockey Championship. All the teams have Wednesday off to regroup and prepare for the next stage.

Here, then, are some other notes on players I’ve seen so far…

Kasper Halttunen, Team Finland, Forward, 6-foot-3, 207 pounds
Ranked 11th by NHL Central Scouting among European skaters

Halttunen has elevated his game so far in the tournament after having a less than spectacular season playing at various levels in Finland. He’s scored five goals and three assists through four games and directed 19 shots on goal. He looks more like the player I viewed at the Hlinka/Gretzky tournament last summer when he was ripping pucks on net from the flank on the power-play. He’s playing quicker and competing more consistently. It’s fair to say he is a bit of an enigma heading towards the draft. A big performance in the medal round would go a long way towards an uptick in his draft ranking to end the year. His element is his shot. There is no secret that he’s a shooter more than a playmaker.

Oliver Moore, Team USA, Forward, 5-foot-11, 176 pounds
Ranked 8^th by NHL Central Scouting among North American skaters

Moore has scored four goals and two assists in his first four games and is being deployed in all situations. Moore continues to display a high-octane, fast, competitive style. There is no question he plays to his max every time he rolls over the boards. I appreciate his small area game. He can escape pressure with tight turns and pivots. I am, however, concerned about how high end his offence projects to be as an NHL player. Moore isn’t the easiest linemate to play with. He tends to play to his strengths and at times lacks some vision and playmaking with his wingers. At worst he is a 3F who can very likely play the middle, the wing and be used in an energy/penalty-killing role. His projected versatility gives him an edge on some other prospects.

Aron Kiviharju, Team Finland, Defenceman, 5-foot-10, 165 pounds
Underage Prospect: 2024 NHL Draft Eligible

Kiviharju is an underage prospect for Team Finland and he’s already part of the leadership group of the national team, wearing an “A” at this event despite his age. Kiviharju leans transitional defenceman. He’s quarterbacking one of the power-play units and shows some deception when moving laterally, to go along with solid vision of where to distribute the puck. At this stage he is a playmaker more than a shooter. He’s undersized, but pretty strong in the trenches. Time will tell his trajectory, but he’s solidly on the map as a priority for the 2024 NHL draft.

Otto Stenberg, Team Sweden, Forward, 5-foot-11, 180 pounds
Ranked 6^th by NHL Central Scouting among European skaters

I really like the way Stenberg plays the game. He has a take charge personality, so it’s easy to see why he is Team Sweden’s captain. Stenberg is quick and sturdy. He’s plenty strong and hard to knock off the play. Stenberg is being used in all situations at this tournament, producing three goals and six assists in four games. He’s projected to be drafted in the back half of the first round. I feel like a team might value him between picks 16–22 come June.

Juraj Pekarcik, Team Slovakia, Forward, 6-foot-2, 190 pounds
Ranked 41^st by NHL Central Scouting among European skaters

Every year there is a player at this event who elevates his game. Last year Jiri Kulich of Team Czechia was the player who most improved his draft stock and he ended up being selected by the Buffalo Sabres at 28^th overall.

In this year’s tournament Pekarcik has improved his stock. He’s benefiting from playing alongside Dalibor Dvorsky on the Slovakian power-play, but opportunity is only what you make of it. Pekarcik sits ninth in tournament scoring after the preliminary round with three goals and four assists.

Pekarcik is a good sized forward who has a long reach, average-plus puck touch, and sound zone awareness offensively. His skating has room to improve, as does his secondary battle at times. But there is no doubt he has caught the attention of my colleagues in his first four games this week.

Here are a couple of his goals from the tournament. Pekarcik wears No. 18 in blue for Team Slovakia.

In the first clip, watch as he sets the power-play from behind the Swedish goal line, then rotates off the weak-side through the slot, finding open space to make himself available to one-time a puck home for the tuck.

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In the second clip, Pekarcik’s role is to take away the eyes of Canadian goaltender Carson Bjarnason, but first he needs to position himself as a down low option off the boards before the puck moves up top to the point. Once the puck gets to the top of the zone, he stations himself accordingly and tips home a goal from just outside the Canadian crease.

The entire sequence shows good situational awareness, support and then highlights his hand/eye coordination on the tip.

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With the tournament moving into the single game knockout stage of the medal round, it will be interesting to see which players finish the strongest in front of the entire NHL scouting community.

I will provide further updates following the quarterfinal games on Thursday.

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NBA Finals Takeaways: Undrafted players shine as Heat tie series vs. Nuggets

Published

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June 5, 2023

nigemord@gmail.com

Which trend would hold? The Denver Nuggets remaining undefeated at home in the playoffs or the underdog Miami Heat being the team that won’t die?

That was the question as the NBA Finals teed up Game 2 on Sunday in Denver, after the Nuggets won comfortably in Game 1.

There were plenty of other subplots: would the Heat figure out how to at least make something difficult for Nuggets star Nikola Jokic? Would Jimmy Butler return to ‘playoff Jimmy’ form? Would the Heat role players show up? Would Jamal Murray keep doing his convincing Steph Curry impression?

Well, Miami won 111-108 as Jokic finished with 41 points on 16-of-28 shooting but was limited to just four assists as the Heat were more judicious in their double teams and took away easy passing lanes.

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Butler didn’t exactly tear it up for most of the game, but he was a willing playmaker, helping find looks for his teammates. In the fourth quarter, he looked for his own offence more as he scored eight of his 21 points down the stretch while adding nine assists.

Meanwhile, Murray looked relatively ordinary as the Canadian’s streak of 25 points or more in the post-season ended at six games as he finished with 18 points and 10 assists. He did hit big three as part of the Nuggets’ 11-2 run late in the fourth that helped Denver turn a 12-point Miami lead to a one-possession game, but Murray missed a long three on the final possession that would have sent the game into overtime.

The Nuggets take the series to Miami for Game 3 on Wednesday after losing at home for the first time in 10 playoff starts, the series evened at 1-1.

Some takeaways.

Would Playoff Jimmy please stand up?

Butler has alternately looked like the best player in the world during these playoffs — he averaged 37.6 points a game in Miami’s five-game upset of the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first round — and just a guy.

A pretty good guy, but a long way from the second coming of Kobe Bryant.

Heading into Game 2, Butler – who scored just 13 points on 14 shots in the opener – was averaging just 20.7 points on 39-per-cent shooting over his previous six starts this post-season.

Not surprisingly, the Heat were just 2-4 over that stretch.

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There were no signs Butler was going to change course in the early going. On possession after possession, the Nuggets would funnel Butler to the baseline, content to take their chances with him dribbling through the paint without even looking at the rim.

Normally it’s a compliment to say a player of Butler’s calibre wasn’t forcing anything, but not in this case as the Heat likely would have been happy to their star try to put his imprint on the game. Instead, when Butler hit traffic he’d make a harmless pass to the corner, the Nuggets would rotate and not much would happen.

It wasn’t like Butler was a non-factor: he finished the first half with 11 points on 4-of-9 shooting to go along with four assists, but in my view the Heat need Butler to be creating offense for himself if they’re going to keep up with the Nuggets juggernaut.

In the third quarter with the game separated by a three-point field goal, Butler got out on a break but fumbled the ball away when chased down by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. It’s just one play but not one that Butler would have made a month ago.

But Butler began to heat up in the fourth as a three and a three-point play gave the Heat a six-point lead that they stretched to 12. The Heat hung on from there.

The great undrafted

The collection of undrafted role players the Heat have come to rely on to round out their lineup in support of Butler and Bam Adebayo came to play.

Miami jumped out to a 10-2 lead as Max Strus – 0-of-10 from three in Game 1 – hit a pair of quick triples early, taking advantage of some lax Nuggets defence.

Meanwhile, Gabe Vincent hit a pair of jumpers and showed why he’s been the right choice by Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra to supplant Kyle Lowry as a starter.

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As the Nuggets chipped into Miami’s lead and then threatened to run away with things in the second quarter, it was Vincent who kept the Heat in touch after Denver cut the lead to three by the end of the first quarter and pushed in front by double figures in the second. Vincent hit a big three that kept the Nuggets’ lead at 10 and then a steal and three-point play helped the Heat come back from down 15.

Vincent wasn’t the only Heat role player to find a way to contribute early. Lowry hit a three as did Kevin Love, who started for an ill Caleb Martin.

Strus finished the first half with 14 points and Vincent 12. But the Heat still trailed at half, 57-51.

They didn’t stop there. It was Vincent’s fourth three that gave Miami its first lead in the fourth quarter and by that time Duncan Robinson – another member of the Heat’s undrafted brigade – was making plays too, nailing threes and driving to the rim as well for 10 points in a quick burst.

A Martin triple – his first field goal of the game – with just under four minutes left gave Miami a 12-point lead. In all, 50 of Miami’s points came from undrafted players.

Rocky Mountain Monsters

Jokic and Murray are at their best when playing together and working in concert to create scoring opportunities seemingly at will. Their cat-and-mouse, two-man game is likely the best in the NBA, with Murray doing a reasonable impression of Steph Curry and Jokic playing the role of Draymond Green if the Golden State Warriors centre could shoot better than 40 per cent from three and score 30 points a game at will.

Heading into the series, ESPN.com reported that Murray and Jokic had created 24.5 points per game directly from handoffs and on-ball screens when working in tandem, more than any other duo in the past five years. But each player can lift the team alone, too.

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In the first quarter, it was Jokic turning up the offence as the rest of his teammates were slow to get into the game and it seemed like Miami might put the Nuggets in a deep hole early. He was 5-of-9 in the first quarter – Jokic took just one shot in the first quarter of Game 1 – while the rest of the Nuggets were 5-of-12 and Murray was 0-of-3.

But with Jokic on the bench in the second quarter, Murray began to heat up. In a two-minute stretch early in the second quarter, Murray hit a triple in transition, made a steal and scored a three-point play when he was fouled at the rim on his dunk and then hit an impossible fadeaway jumper over Adebayo at the end of the shot clock to put Denver up 12.

Not a lot of teams even have one player that can reliably raise their game in the post-season. Denver – in a sense – has three: Jokic and Murray together and then each of them on their own.

Murray’s playoff scoring average is 8.5 points more per game than his regular season average, the most of any player with at least 20 post-season games played, per ESPN.com. Second on that list is Jokic, who averages 7.1 points more per game in the playoffs than the regular season.

But give credit to Heat for adjusting. They stayed home on Denver’s shooters, taking away much of Jokic’s playmaking options and turning him into a scorer. By playing so much zone, a lot of Murray and Jokic’s two-man game was minimized — reflected by Murray’s reduced scoring and Jokic’s limited playmaking opportunities.

Random Jokic appreciation

There are almost no words to fully capture how good Jokic is at basketball. Whether he’s the best in the game now (I think so) or will end up one of the best of all time (he’s already on his way) is almost pointless to debate.

But what’s not an argument is how fun he is to watch figure out plays on the fly. In various sequences in the third quarter, he backed down Heat centre Adebayo – a perennial all-defence candidate – eventually winning a protracted, twisty, physical game of one-on-one with a delicate floater at the rim.

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A moment later, he surveyed the floor and calmly drained a triple and why not? He’s shooting 47 per cent from three in the playoffs.

Adebayo then said ‘not again’ and fouled Jokic on an overly aggressive close-out, sending him to the line for three points.

Then Jokic picked up a loose ball just over half, winning a race for it against Vincent, and won another twisty, turny game of one-on-one against a point guard in space, finishing with another floater.

His most prominent skill is passing, but Jokic’s real genius is he can beat you (on offence, at any rate) any way he decides he needs to. He scored in the post with fundamental jump hooks, he scored ambling up the floor going end-to-end as the world’s biggest, slowest, best point guard.

He scored 18 points in the third quarter as Denver started the fourth leading 83-75 and it was a joy to watch.

And some love for Lowry

The former Toronto Raptors star isn’t worth the $28 million the Heat are paying him this season or the $29 million his contract calls for next season, a big reason why it’s widely expected that the Heat will try to use his contract in a blockbuster trade – possibly including Tyler Herro – to add another star this off-season.

But it’s not like Lowry can’t play. He still can make plays that only someone with his combination of hustle and IQ would even think about: plowing into a crowd of Nuggets on a missed free throw to get his hands on the ball, allowing the Heat to score a much-needed three, or an expert pocket pass to Adebayo for a lay-up, or some clutch threes.

Lowry finished with nine points, added three assists and was on the floor and +11 in the fourth quarter.