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Friday Four: When will the ‘floodgates’ open for Michael Bunting?

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The Friday Four, a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player performances, continues this week with some notes on:

• How Michael Bunting is replacing Zach Hyman on Toronto’s top line and if more offence can be expected from him.

Sean Monahan‘s demotion to Calgary’s fourth line, how and why that happened, and what to expect now that he’s back in the top-six again.

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Jordan Kyrou breakout season from St. Louis’ bottom six?

• And Troy Terry is taking the league by storm with what is now a 13-game point streak. Can he keep up some level of that production and lead a Ducks resurgence, or will last year’s worst offence regress in a big way?

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MICHAEL BUNTING, TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

As Zach Hyman is enjoying a very quick eight-goal start in Edmonton, his replacement on the left flank of Toronto’s top line is settling in nicely as an early fan favourite.

Michael Bunting (three) just doesn’t have the same goal totals as Hyman, who sits among the league leaders. But there’s reason to believe they will start coming.

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“Right now I feel like I am getting my looks at the net, I’ve had quite a few Grade A chances and they’re just not going in for me,” Bunting said this week. “I feel like if I wasn’t getting those Grade A chances then I’d be a little worried about my game, but it’s only a matter of time when that goes in and the floodgates will open for me.”

Bunting has indeed been getting his opportunities. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Leafs rookie (chuckle) leads the league in individual expected goals at 5-on-5 — a stat that considers the types of shots a player gets and how often those turn into goals on average. He’s seventh in the league with 38 individual scoring chances (linemates Matthews and Nylander are first and second) and fifth with 19 high-danger opportunities. Compared to Hyman in Edmonton, Bunting is stacking up pretty good (league rank in parenthesis).


All stats 5-on-5 and from Natural Stat Trick.

But where Hyman has outpaced his expected 5-on-5 goals with four actual tallies, Bunting is coming in under and has scored just twice in this situation so far.

Unsurprisingly, Bunting’s scoring chances weren’t as strong in Arizona last season, but what made him stand out as a possible bargain breakout for the Leafs was his actual goal rates. Bunting played only 21 NHL games in 2020-21 and managed 10 goals. The type of chances he was getting didn’t rank highly in the league on a per-minute basis, but Bunting was among the better Coyotes in individual high danger chances and individual expected goal rates. He was a big fish in a small pond, within an even smaller sample.

What really mattered was how often he was actually putting the puck in the net. With the Coyotes, Bunting ranked eighth in the NHL when it came to goals scored per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play last season with a 23.33 shooting percentage. So far this year he ranks 217th in goals per 60 minutes with a 7.41 shooting percentage despite the fact the quality of his looks has improved dramatically.

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The improved quality of his shots isn’t at all surprising given the minutes he plays and the linemates he has in Auston Matthews and William Nylander. But, unlike last season, not a lot of them are going in yet. Bunting has been playing well and as long as he’s holding up his end of the bargain and Nick Ritchie struggles, there’s no real threat to take Bunting off the top line. Keep at it, and it stands to reason more goals will start coming his way and, yes, those “flood gates” could open.

SEAN MONAHAN, CALGARY FLAMES

The former first-line partner of Johnny Gaudreau’s in Calgary, Sean Monahan was an 82-point player just three years ago, but found himself in a fourth-line checking role this season as Darryl Sutter shook up the combos to find early success.

To be sure, injuries have probably played a factor here. Monahan revealed that he was injured in the sixth game of last season, which eventually led to off-season hip surgery. That explains his limited production in the abbreviated schedule. The extensive rehab from that surgery also explains why Monahan was eased into pre-season action, and maybe why he started this year off slow as well and demoted to the fourth line in the early-going — though his place on the top power-play unit has not changed.

“We all know Sean has come through a surgery at the end of the year last year, rehabbed it all summer and is really doing well,” Flames GM Brad Treliving told The FAN 960 this week. “But those do take time to get up to speed. One of the things Darryl talked about is looking at the depth, he’s really trying to spread things around. As (Monahan) gets up to speed, we’ve talked about trying to get a little more pace, quickness in the middle. Talked about putting Dube in the middle and moving Sean to where he’s moved him.”

[radioclip id=5235083]

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To his credit, Monahan accepted a demotion that required winger Dillon Dube to be Monahan’s replacement as the second line pivot. More speed, mobility and offensive upside. The fact the Flames went on a winning streak after making those lineup adjustments confirmed it was the right thing to do at the time.

But that winning streak ended when the calendar flipped to November, and the Flames started the month with a 1-1-2 record in all home games. The Flames got through their first road trip of the season with five wins in five games, but embarked on their current seven-game, 11-day roadie in the midst of a lull. Time to try and nip that in the bud, shake up the lines again, and find renewed energy.

So, on Thursday night in Montreal, Monahan found himself back in the top six, centring Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane on the second line. The Flames dropped another decision, 4-2 to the struggling Habs, which will up the urgency a bit to get out of the spiral with stops in Toronto, Ottawa, Philadelphia and Buffalo up over the next week. But, at least, Monahan and his new linemates found some instant chemistry and success.

That was Calgary’s best line against Montreal, controlling 66 per cent of the 5-on-5 shots and 87 per cent of the scoring chances. Monahan picked up a primary assist, his first of the season at 5-on-5, on a cross-ice rush pass that Team Canada hopeful Andrew Mangiapane converted on.

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“You go about those things two ways,” Treliving said of how Monahan dealt with his slide down the lineup. “You go in there kicking and screaming and sucking your thumb, or you go in there knowing what the coach is trying to do for the betterment of the group. This isn’t certainly anything that’s a penalty for Sean.”

Whether or not Monahan returns to a level of play that matches his $6.375-million cap hit, it’s valuable in another sense for the Flames to have such a centre they can move throughout the lineup to create depth or matchup issues for opponents along the way, and have that leader and established veteran accept the assignment, no questions asked. But it’s also reasonable to wonder if Monahan has more to give this season as his spot in the lineup and injury recovery continue to settle.

“I want to get Sean going a little bit and move some other guys around and see if we can get just get a little more offence out of it,” Sutter said.

JORDAN KYROU, ST. LOUIS BLUES

As we creep towards the one quarter mark of this season, 23 NHL players have registered at least 14 points so far and 19 of them are scoring at better than a point-per-game pace. A lot of those names will be instantly recognizable to any NHL fan. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of course (they’re actually averaging two points per game). Kyle Connor, Brad Marchand, and Anze Kopitar, Aleksander Barkov are on that list too.

Jordan Kyrou is among these 19 players and the 2016 second-round pick by St. Louis doesn’t have the same name draw as a lot of the others. And actually, he doesn’t get nearly the same ice time as any of those players either. Kyrou is a third liner in St. Louis and of all the names on this list of 19 players, he’s the only one averaging less than 16 minutes a game (15:42). So Kyrou qualifies as a bit of an early-season surprise. Maybe it shouldn’t have come as such a shock, though.

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Kyrou played his first full NHL season in 2020-21, registering 14 goals and 35 points in 55 games. He wasn’t a leading player in ice time then either, averaging 13:10 per game.

His per-minute production rates indicated a possible breakout star, though, and we’re seeing some evidence of that coming to fruition. Combining 2019-20 (28 games played) and 2020-21, Kyrou played a total of 83 games, scoring 18 goals and 44 points. Pretty good. Looking at that production through a per-minute lens, though, he has the potential for so much more.

Among all NHL forwards with at least 900 minutes of 5-on-5 action, here is where Kyrou ranked in key categories in the two seasons prior to this one.


*Numbers per Natural Stat Trick

Sometimes these per-minute rates are great indicators for players who don’t get top line minutes. In 2017-18, Jakub Vrana averaged 12:30 per game, scored 13 goals and had a 0.77 goals per 60 minutes rate at 5-on-5. The following season his ice time got up to 14:02 per game and he scored 24 times. In 2019-20 he averaged just under 15 minutes of ice time and notched 25 goals in 69 games — roughly a 30-goal pace. He was traded to Detroit at last season’s deadline because an opportunity wasn’t being offered to him in Washington, and Vrana answered with eight goals in 11 games averaging 17:16 of ice time a night. Injury has removed him from action this season.

In 2016-17, Oliver Bjorkstrand had a good start with six goals in 26 games and led all Blue Jackets in goals per 60 minutes with a small sample. His wasn’t a natural upward tick the following season, but in 2018-19 Bjorkstrand averaged 12:20 of ice time a game and again led the Blue Jackets with 1.35 goals per 60 minutes played at 5-on-5. In 2019-20 he broke out with 21 goals in 49 games (a roughly 35-goal pace) playing nearly 18 minutes a night.

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And Carter Verhaeghe, last year’s breakout NHL star, scored just nine times in 52 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2019-20, averaging under 10 minutes of ice time per game. But his 5-on-5 goals per 60 was 1.04 that year. In 2020-21 with the Panthers, Verhaeghe scored 18 goals in 43 games (a 34-goal pace) as the Panthers offered him greater opportunity and 17:44 of ice time a night.

There are more examples, of course, but this gives you an idea of why we should be on the lookout for more in the years ahead for Kyrou as his ice time grows. But will he sustain it this season?

His shooting percentage was initially sky high at 25 per cent after scoring twice in his first two games, and that was always bound to come down. He went eight games before scoring another, and has now potted three more in his past two games. His 17.5 shooting percentage is still probably high, but settling into a range that is perhaps sustainable — his career shooting percentage is 13.2.

But what gives even more probability that Kyrou’s points rates can keep up (or close to it) is how often he’s earning primary assists at 5-on-5. His passes are directly leading to goals an awful lot — Kyrou’s five total primary assists at 5-on-5 ranks tied for second in the league. And that doesn’t consider his lesser ice time.

So it’s not just that Kyrou is scoring an exciting amount of goals in limited ice time, but he’s performed like an elite set up guy, too. All told, Kyrou is hanging around the top of the league in points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 action for all players with at least 10 games played so far — where he joins some interesting names.

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Kyrou was turning some heads early with eight points in his first four games and while he was never going to sustain a two-points-per-game pace, what’s promising here is that he’s continued on as a strong producer and is catching fire again, with four points in two games this week.

TROY TERRY, ANAHEIM DUCKS

The early “waiver wire MVP” in fantasy hockey circles, Troy Terry has now scored a point in 13 consecutive games for the longest active streak in the league. He’s scored 11 times, too — one off the league lead of 12 by Leon Draisaitl. Terry currently sits fourth in the NHL in points with 19 in 14 games, behind only Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and Alex Ovechkin.

What a welcome development for a Ducks team that was dreadful last season and scored fewer goals than any other team.

The 24-year-old winger was a fifth-round pick of Anaheim’s back in 2015 and his number of NHL games played has been ticking up for a few years, though last season was the first he spent the entire season in the big leagues in a mostly bottom-six role. But, like Kyrou in St. Louis, Terry’s underlying numbers and scoring rates were pretty strong — he finished 2020-21 third on the Ducks in primary assists per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play and third in goals.

Mike Kelly of Sportlogiq laid out a pretty good explainer on some of what Terry is doing that can be sustained — though it’s unlikely he’ll be a 100-plus point player, and 60-plus goal scorer this season.

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There’s a wonder now if Terry can play his way on to Team USA’s Olympic roster and that certainly will be something to monitor in the coming months. And, funny enough, a former Team Canada star who’s probably aged out of the process could help him get there.

Terry’s centre is Ryan Getzlaf, who struggled through his worst season yet in the 56-game schedule and reduced his pay to $3 million on a re-sign this summer. But, despite the real age-related decline happening there, Getzlaf still has great vision and the ability to thread passes — a perfect complement to Terry, who is strong off the rush with a good shot. Only Adam Henrique (the third member of this top line) has had more high-danger chances in the front of the net this season.

Getzlaf, it should be noted, has already surpassed his assist total from all of last season.

If you’re a fantasy manager enjoying Terry’s explosion, you’re faced with the tough question of whether to sell high on him now, or hang on for the ride. Our fantasy expert Nick Alberga explores that possibility in his Friday mailbag here. The key thing to note is that Terry’s trade value probably is as high as it will ever be right now, but don’t take it too far — he may not be a top-10 scorer by the end of the season, but the breakout is definitely real.

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And the Ducks, with quite a few promising young players in their lineup, seem to have a stud to move into the future with.





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How to watch Appalachian State vs. James Madison: NCAA Football live stream info, TV channel, time, game odds

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Who’s Playing

James Madison @ Appalachian State

Current Records: James Madison 2-0; Appalachian State 2-1

What to Know

The James Madison Dukes watched the action from their couches last weekend, but are set to take to the field. James Madison and the Appalachian State Mountaineers will face off in a Sun Belt battle at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Kidd Brewer Stadium. The odds don’t look promising for the Dukes, but the bigger the opponent is, the harder they fall.

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A well-balanced attack led James Madison over the Norfolk State Spartans every single quarter on their way to victory two weeks ago. James Madison claimed a resounding 63-7 win over Norfolk State at home. The game was pretty much decided by the half, when the score had already reached 35 to nothing.

Meanwhile, Appalachian State didn’t have too much breathing room in their contest with the Troy Trojans last week, but they still walked away with a 32-28 victory. Appalachian State QB Chase Brice was slinging it as he passed for two TDs and 279 yards on 34 attempts. Near the top of the highlight reel was Brice’s 53-yard TD bomb to WR Christan Horn in the fourth quarter.

Their wins bumped the Dukes to 2-0 and the Mountaineers to 2-1. Watch the matchup and check back on CBS Sports to find out who keeps up the positive energy and who hits a stumbling block.

How To Watch

  • When: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Kidd Brewer Stadium — Boone, North Carolina
  • TV: ESPN Plus
  • Online streaming: fuboTV (Try for free. Regional restrictions may apply.)
  • Follow: CBS Sports App
  • Ticket Cost: $40.99

Odds

The Mountaineers are a solid 6.5-point favorite against the Dukes, according to the latest college football odds.

The oddsmakers had a good feel for the line for this one, as the game opened with the Mountaineers as a 7.5-point favorite.

Over/Under: -111

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See college football picks for every single game, including this one, from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. Get picks now.

Series History

This is the first time these teams have played each other within the last seven years.



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UTSA vs. Texas Southern: How to watch NCAA Football online, TV channel, live stream info, game time

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Who’s Playing

Texas Southern @ UTSA

Current Records: Texas Southern 1-2; UTSA 1-2

What to Know

The Texas Southern Tigers will take on the UTSA Roadrunners at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Alamodome. Texas Southern isn’t favored, but they just beat the odds in their last game, so don’t count them out.

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The Tigers kept a clean sheet against the Southern University Jaguars last week and took the matchup 24 to nothing. The squad ran away with 21 points in the first half and mostly just sat on those in the second to pick up the victory.

Meanwhile, it was all tied up 17-17 at halftime, but UTSA was not quite the Texas Longhorns’ equal in the second half when they met last week. The Roadrunners suffered a grim 41-20 defeat to the Longhorns. This contest was a close 17-17 at the break, but unfortunately for UTSA it sure didn’t stay that way. A silver lining for them was the play of RB Brenden Brady, who threw one touchdown in addition to punching in one rushing touchdown.

Texas Southern’s win lifted them to 1-2 while UTSA’s loss dropped them down to 1-2. We’ll find out if the Tigers can add another positive mark to their record or if UTSA can shake off the defeat and take the spring out of Texas Southern’s step.

How To Watch

  • When: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Alamodome — San Antonio, Texas
  • TV: STADIUM
  • Follow: CBS Sports App
  • Ticket Cost: $69.00

Odds

The Roadrunners are a big 42-point favorite against the Tigers, according to the latest college football odds.

Bettors have moved against the Roadrunners slightly, as the game opened with the Roadrunners as a 44-point favorite.

Over/Under: -110

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See college football picks for every single game, including this one, from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. Get picks now.

Series History

This is the first time these teams have played each other within the last seven years.



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North Carolina vs. Notre Dame live stream info, TV channel: How to watch NCAA Football on TV, stream online

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Who’s Playing

Notre Dame @ North Carolina

Current Records: Notre Dame 1-2; North Carolina 3-0

What to Know

The North Carolina Tar Heels will be returning home after a two-game road trip. They will take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Kenan Memorial Stadium after a week off. UNC is expected to win — but not by much — so they will need to come into the game prepared for a fight.

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The Tar Heels beat the Georgia State Panthers 35-28 two weeks ago. Among those leading the charge for UNC was RB Omarion Hampton, who rushed for two TDs and 110 yards on 16 carries. Hampton put himself on the highlight reel with a 58-yard TD scramble in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame netted a 24-17 victory over the California Golden Bears last week. RB Audric Estime and RB Chris Tyree were among the main playmakers for Notre Dame as the former punched in one rushing touchdown and the latter snatched one receiving TD.

Notre Dame’s defense was a presence as well, as it embarrassed California’s offensive line to sack QB Jack Plummer six times for a total loss of 47 yards. It was a group effort with four guys contributing.

The wins brought the Tar Heels up to 3-0 and the Fighting Irish to 1-2. A pair of stats to keep an eye on: UNC enters the matchup with 310 passing yards per game on average, good for 21st best in the nation. But Notre Dame comes into the contest boasting the 34th fewest passing yards allowed per game in the nation at 184. These opposing strengths should make for an exciting matchup.

How To Watch

  • When: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Kenan Memorial Stadium — Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  • TV: ABC
  • Online streaming: fuboTV (Try for free. Regional restrictions may apply.)
  • Follow: CBS Sports App
  • Ticket Cost: $110.00

Odds

The Tar Heels are a slight 2.5-point favorite against the Fighting Irish, according to the latest college football odds.

The line on this game has moved quite a bit since it opened, as it started out with the Fighting Irish as a 1.5-point favorite.

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Over/Under: -110

See college football picks for every single game, including this one, from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. Get picks now.

Series History

Notre Dame have won all of the games they’ve played against North Carolina in the last eight years.

  • Oct 30, 2021 – Notre Dame 44 vs. North Carolina 34
  • Nov 27, 2020 – Notre Dame 31 vs. North Carolina 17
  • Oct 07, 2017 – Notre Dame 33 vs. North Carolina 10



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