Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Simplification can establish himself as one of the leading contenders for the 2022 Kentucky Derby when he leaves the starting gate in the 2022 Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. A three-year-old son of budding sire Not This Time, Simplification has three wins, one second and one third in six career starts. He is coming off a 3 1/2-length victory in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on March 5. Simplification is the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 2022 Florida Derby odds. White Abarrio, who won the Holy Bull Stakes, is 3-1 in the 11-horse 2022 Florida Derby field, while Charge It and Classic Causeway are 7-2.

Post time for the $1 million Florida Derby 2022 is 6:38 p.m. ET. With very little separating the top four choices on Saturday, you’ll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any Florida Derby picks of your own.

A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Last year he was on fire. He hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes, with the Tampa Bay score returning $1,414. Those were just some of his scores in 2021.

This year, he has hit the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup and Louisiana Derby, the exacta in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby and multiple Pick 4s, among other scores.

Now, he has handicapped the 2022 Florida Derby lineup, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see them here.

Top 2022 Florida Derby expert picks

One surprise: Weir is down on the chances of White Abarrio, even though he is one of the top favorites. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., White Abarrio has three wins and one third in four career starts. In his last race, he won the Holy Bull, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 97, the best in the field. 

But in that race, Simplification missed the break, allowing White Abarrio to set a comfortable lead. “I do not expect a similar trip Saturday,” Weir told SportsLine. Weir will not use White Abarrio on top in his 2022 Florida Derby bets and prefers three horses over him.

How to make 2022 Florida Derby picks

Weir’s top pick is a “big horse who should appreciate the stretch-out in distance.” He also is high on a double-digit long shot to make waves late. Weir is including these horses in his 2022 Florida Derby picks, and so should you. He’s only sharing which horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2022 Florida Derby? What double-digit long shot is a must-back? And how has Weir constructed his wagers? Check out the latest Florida Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Florida Derby, and find out.

2022 Florida Derby odds, contenders, horses, lineups, post positions