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Falcons vs. Patriots odds, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, top predictions by NFL model on 128-89 roll

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New England will try to stay hot against Atlanta when the two teams meet on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots (6-4) have scored at least 45 points twice in the past four weeks and are 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings in Atlanta. The under is 5-1 in the Falcons‘ last six games in Week 11 and the team has covered the spread in three of its last five outings.

Kickoff from Mercedes Benz Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Falcons vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 47. Before locking in your Patriots vs. Falcons picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-89 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

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The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Falcons 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s Thursday Night Football picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Falcons:

  • Falcons vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -6.5
  • Falcons vs. Patriots over-under: 47 points 
  • Falcons vs. Patriots money line: New England -300, Atlanta +240 
  • NE: Patriots are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games 
  • ATL: Under is 5-0 in Falcons’ last five Thursday games

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots

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Why the Patriots can cover

Safety Kyle Dugger has blossomed into a playmaker for the Patriots’ defense. Dugger leads the team with 64 total tackles, including 49 solo. The second-year safety has also recorded four tackles for loss, three pass deflections, and three interceptions. The Lenoir-Rhyne product has logged at least seven total tackles in six matchups this season.

Safety Adrian Phillips is third on the team with 47 total tackles. Phillips has also logged two tackles for loss, four deflections, and three interceptions. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley is another defender who has made plays on this defense. Bentley is second on the squad with 56 total tackles and five tackles for loss. The Purdue product had a monster game against the Dallas Cowboys a month ago and finished with 13 total tackles, three tackles for loss, and one fumble recovery.

Why the Falcons can cover

Matt Ryan has completed 68 percent of his passes for 2,274 yards with 15 passing touchdowns. The Boston College product has thrown for more than 300 yards in four games this season. His best outing came in Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints, when he went 23-of-30 for a season-high 343 yards and two touchdowns.

Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts leads the team with 40 catches for 606 yards and a touchdown. Pitts is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses due to his unique combination of size, speed, and sure hands. The 2021 fourth overall pick leads Atlanta with 67.3 receiving yards per game. Pitts recorded back-to-back 100-yard performances against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, combining for 16 receptions for 282 yards with one touchdown.

How to make Falcons vs. Patriots picks 

SportsLine’s model is leaning over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 47 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Falcons vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine

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So who wins Patriots vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Falcons spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,500 on its NFL picks, and find out.





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