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Falcons vs. Patriots odds, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 128-89 roll

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Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots (6-4) will face Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots completely dominated the Cleveland Browns in Week 10 and won 45-7. The Falcons have been inconsistent thus far and have not won two consecutive games all season. Thursday Night Football marks the first game of the Week 11 NFL schedule.

Kickoff from Mercedes Benz Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Falcons vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 47. Before locking in your Patriots vs. Falcons picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-89 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

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The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Falcons 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s Thursday Night Football picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Falcons:

  • Falcons vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -6.5
  • Falcons vs. Patriots over-under: 47 points 
  • Falcons vs. Patriots money line: New England -300, Atlanta +240 
  • NE: Patriots are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games 
  • ATL: Under is 5-0 in Falcons’ last five Thursday games

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots

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Why the Patriots can cover

The Patriots put the entire league on notice last week with an emphatic 45-7 victory over the Browns. New England has now won its last four games, and the Patriots can attribute their success to the play of quarterback Mac Jones. The rookie signal-caller completed 19-of-23 passes for 198 yards and three touchdowns last week against Cleveland.

Jones has thrown two or more touchdown passes in three of his last five games. Jones has also taken care of the ball, throwing just one interception in his last four outings. Plus, New England has been dominant on the road, winning four of its last five road games, which includes a 24-6 victory over the Panthers earlier this month.

Why the Falcons can cover

New England has a strong rushing attack and is ranked 15th in the NFL with 114.5 rushing yards per game. Damien Harris leads the charge for New England. He is ninth in the NFL in carries (133), 10th in rushing yards (547), and fourth in rushing touchdowns (seven). Harris was out against the Cleveland Browns due to a concussion, but could suit up on Thursday Night Football.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson took advantage of his increased playing time against the Browns. He finished with 20 carries for a career-high 100 yards with two touchdowns. The Oklahoma product flashed decisiveness when making cuts while being a tough runner to bring down. Stevenson is second on the team with 55 carries for 236 yards and three scores. 

How to make Falcons vs. Patriots picks 

SportsLine’s model is leaning over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 47 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Falcons vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine

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So who wins Patriots vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Falcons spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,500 on its NFL picks, and find out.





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USC avoids upset vs. Oregon State after Caleb Williams connects with Jordan Addison for game-winning TD

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USATSI

Oregon State pushed No. 7 USC to the brink of an upset on Saturday night before the Trojans survived for a 17-14 victory thanks to a late touchdown from a largely ineffective offense. After connecting just twice for 21 yards over the span of 58 minutes, quarterback Caleb Williams found Jordan Addison for a 21-yard score down the right sideline with 1:13 remaining. The Trojans defense, which came up huge all night, then produced a game-clinching interception — the fourth of the evening —  as Max Williams picked off Chance Nolan with 35 seconds remaining.

The touchdown connection between Williams and Addison was a rare moment of brilliance in an otherwise frustrating night for the Trojans offense. Williams finished just 16 of 36 passing for 180 yards and was held without a touchdown until his go-ahead toss to Addison, who finished with just 42 yards on receiving on three receptions.

USC started the night with a turnover on downs, a missed field goal and a punt before finally getting on the scoreboard with a 42-yarder from Denis Lynch with 5:38 left in the first half. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter that the Trojans finally found the end zone, when Travis Dye surged in from 7 yards out to make it 10-7 with 14:18 remaining.

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The Trojans averaged 50.7 points per game in their first three wins against RiceStanford and Fresno State; Oregon State similarly entered averaging 45.7 points. Defense won the day, however, as USC’s four turnovers gives the Trojans an astonishing 14-0 turnover edge on its opponents so far this season.

Jam Griffin scored from 18 yards out with 4:41 remaining to give the Beavers a 14-10 lead. Then, with its back against the wall, the Trojans delivered their response to improve to 4-0 in coach Lincoln Riley’s first season.



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Bowl projections: Clemson jumps into College Football Playoff as Kansas State upsets Oklahoma

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Despite a season that has already been filled with upsets, change finally comes to the College Football Playoff projection for the first time following Week 4 action. Falling 41-34 to Kansas State on Saturday night, Oklahoma has been bounced from the field of four and replaced by Clemson.

While the Sooners’ loss to the Wildcats for the third time in four seasons does not put them out of the running for the Big 12 championship, the Tigers are now far more likely to end their regular season as an undefeated conference champion out of the ACC. Clemson beat Wake Forest 51-45 Saturday afternoon and looks to only have one ranked opponent remaining on its schedule, which it gets at home (NC State next week).

Michigan beat Maryland 34-27 this week and was the first team out of the last projection; however, it still has top-15 programs Penn State at home and Ohio State on the road over the second half of the season.

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The other top-four teams held serve Saturday. Georgia was not as impressive as usual despite a 39-22 win over Kent State, Ohio State blasted Wisconsin 52-21, and Alabama routed Vanderbilt 55-3.

Check back Sunday for Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections after Week 4.

College Football Playoff

Jan. 9

National Championship
Inglewood, Calif.

Title game Semifinal winners

Dec. 31

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Peach Bowl
Atlanta

Semifinal

(1) Georgia vs. (4) Clemson

Dec. 31

Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz.

Semifinal

(2) Ohio State vs. (3) Alabama

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Stampeders beat Lions, both teams lock up playoff spots

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VANCOUVER — The Calgary Stampeders avoided a season sweep at the hands of the B.C. Lions with a defensively impressive 25-11 win at B.C. Place on Saturday.

The win ensures the Stampeders will go to the playoffs for the 17th year in a row.

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A spectacular 54-yard catch by rookie Jalen Philpot of Delta, B.C., set up the only major score of the first half, landing the Stampeders (9-5) on B.C.’s three-yard-line for a touchdown conversion by Ka’Deem Carey.

Calgary failed on its two-point convert attempt. Peyton Logan added a 19-yard touchdown run with 1:57 left in the fourth quarter, and Dominique Rhymes caught B.C.’s lone touchdown pass from Antonio Pipkin with 29 seconds remaining. Pipkin carried the ball across the one-yard-line for a successful two-point convert.

Calgary’s field-goal kicker Rene Paredes was good on four-of-five attempts, from 39, 33, 31 and 33 yards. He added a convert for 13 total points.

For the Lions (9-4), Sean Whyte extended his CFL field-goal streak to 13 with a 34-yard kick to get his club on the scoreboard with 24 seconds left in the third quarter.

Paredes kicked wide to the right on his first field-goal attempt of the game. That came just 2:08 into the contest — the Stampeders had marched down to the B.C. 41-yard line after opening the first quarter by recovering Paredes’ 11-yard onside kick.

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One week after grabbing a 31-29 overtime win over the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium, the Lions could not find a spark to ignite their offence.

In his first home start at B.C. Place after being acquired in a trade with the Montreal Alouettes on Aug. 19, quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. was 12-for-24 in the air for 151 yards. He added 11 yards on the ground. Anthony Pipkin stepped in under centre late in the fourth quarter, going 4-for-6 for 66 yards and one touchdown throw.

Kicker Stefan Flintoft had a busy night for the Lions, punting for 417 yards.

The Lions also came out on the wrong side of the penalty tally. After last week’s thriller at McMahon Stadium included 215 yards in total penalties, B.C. was whistled for six penalties for 65 yards on Saturday. That included a critical major foul on Jordan Williams which gave Calgary good position near centre field before Philpot’s monster catch shortly before halftime.

A major foul for roughing the passer also negated an interception by T.J. Lee with just over three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter.

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As Calgary’s defence kept the Lions pinned in their own half of the field for most of the game, quarterback Jake Maier had a strong outing. He completed 27 of 33 pass attempts for 294 yards and added 14 rushing yards. The Stampeders finished with five penalties for 36 yards.

With the win, combined with losses this week by the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Ottawa Redblacks, Calgary clinched its 17th-consecutive CFL post-season berth on the night Dave Dickenson coached his 100th career game with the Stampeders, improving his record to 70-28-2.

After the Lions won both matchups at McMahon Stadium for the first time since 2010, the Stampeders extended a winning record at B.C. Place that stretches back to 2016.

Despite the loss, B.C. also clinched its first playoff spot since 2018.

FOOT NOTES: Stampeders’ veteran offensive lineman Derek Dennis was taken off the field on a cart late in the first quarter after suffering a leg injury …Injured B.C. wide receiver Josh Pearson led the crowd in the singing of `O Canada’ before the game … The B.C. Football Hall of Fame inducted its Class of 2022 before Saturday’s game … The Lions also held their Salute to Amateur Football … Next week, the Lions will host the Ottawa Redblacks on Friday, while the Stampeders will be back at McMahon Stadium to take on the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday.

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