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In the 2022 debut of MLB’s new post-season format, three of the four wild-card series were over in two games.

But with tight races that came down to the final weekend of the season in 2023, things are shaping up to be a little more tightly contested as all eight wild-card matchups start Tuesday.

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In all four series, there are advantages and disadvantages for each team vying for a spot in the next round. Although it’s nearly impossible to predict who will find themselves moving onto the division series, here is a key to victory for each wild-card club that might help them get there.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) at Minnesota Twins (87-75)

First pitch: 4:38 p.m. ET / 1:38 p.m. PT

Betting odds via Sports Interaction: Blue Jays to win series (-105), Twins to win series (-115)

Blue Jays’ key to victory: Get ahead early

Perhaps easier said than done against the likes of Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray, but if the Blue Jays can break out to early leads in the series, they can lean on their pitching and defence to finish the job. Toronto might have the best bullpen of all the American League playoff teams, and the sooner they can get that group a lead, the sooner they can shorten the game.

Of course, the Blue Jays’ rotation has also been fantastic all year, and by taking a lead in the early stages of the game, Toronto’s starters can be more aggressive. With the Twins being one of the top walking and home-run-hitting teams in the league, the Blue Jays will need to avoid the multi-run blast that can prove to be back-breaking in October.

Watch for how the Blue Jays attack Lopez early Tuesday. The hard-throwing righty will face some of Toronto’s top high-velocity hitters early in the game, which might be the perfect time for the Blue Jays to come out swinging.

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Twins‘ key to victory: Don’t chase

Blue Jays pitchers generated the ninth-highest chase rate in MLB this season. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Yuse Kikuchi all finished in the top 25, and Toronto’s bullpen was the best in the majors at getting opposing hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone.

Much has been made about Minnesota’s ability to lay off Gausman’s splitter, but as a whole, the club comes in around the middle of the pack in chase.

By laying off some of the borderline pitches, the Twins should be able to work some more walks and put pressure on Toronto’s pitchers. Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt both ranked in the top 10 in baseball in home runs allowed with runners on base this season, so with the Twins’ left-handed heavy lineup, there might be an opportunity for them to deal a swift blow in the series if they are able to get runners on in the series.

Watch Blue Jays vs. Twins in wild-card round on Sportsnet

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The Toronto Blue Jays head to Minnesota to face the Twins in the best-of-three wild-card round. Watch every game on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+ beginning Oct. 3.

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Texas Rangers (90-72) at Tampa Bay Rays (99-63)

First pitch: 3:08 p.m. ET / 12:08 p.m. PT

Betting odds via Sports Interaction: Rays to win series (-165), Rangers to win series (+135)

Rangers’ key to victory: Have the starters work deep into games

There’s no hiding that the Rangers’ bullpen isn’t quite on the same level as the relief corps some of the other AL contenders.

In the second half, Texas relievers posted a 5.01 ERA and blew 17 saves. For the entire season, the Rangers became just the fifth team ever — and the first since 1969 — to reach 90 wins after blowing more saves than they completed.

While the rotation itself hasn’t been all that great, if Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi and Dane Dunning can hand over the ball to Texas’ two or three reliable relievers, the Rangers offence might be able to score enough runs to overcome the Rays.

Rays’ key to victory: Limit Corey Seager’s production

There might not be a more terrifying hitter to face this October than Seager. The 2020 NLCS and World Series MVP is coming off his best season ever, slashing .327/.390/.623 and is the face of the top run-scoring offence in the American League.

Although he doesn’t have the biggest sample size against Rays pitchers, he has an OPS over 1.000 against seven of the 13 arms that look like they will be on Tampa Bay’s post-season roster.

There might not be an easy way to get Seager out, but if the Rays can figure out how to limit the damage he does, they should be able to take a lot of bite out of Texas’ high-scoring attack.

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) at Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)

First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET / 4:08 p.m. PT

Betting odds via Sports Interaction: Brewers to win series (-160), Diamondbacks to win series (+135)

Diamondbacks’ key to victory: Wreak havoc

Arizona comes in as the top base-stealing team of the post-season.

Brewers catcher William Contreras proved to be below-average at throwing out runners this season, catching just 17 per cent of attempted base stealers. That should open the door for the Diamondbacks to take advantage on the basepaths.

With Milwaukee’s elite pitching staff, Arizona might be forced to manufacture runs if it wants to advance, and luckily, it is the team best suited to do so.

Brewers’ key to victory: Build off a strong August and September

Over the final two months of the season, Milwaukee looked like one of MLB’s best teams. It went 34-20 and saw its offence start to look more like a group that can support its league-best pitching staff.

Since Aug. 1, the Brewers have hit .253/.334/440 and scored the ninth-most runs in baseball. Although that isn’t elite production, combining an above-average offence with a staff headlined by Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Devin Williams, if Milwaukee can keep hitting, it might be able to make some noise this week and beyond.

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Miami Marlins (84-78) at Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET / 5:08 p.m. PT

Betting odds via Sports Interaction: Phillies to win series (-210), Marlins to win series (+170)

Marlins’ key to victory: Let the lefties work

While the Phillies come into the series as the overwhelming favourite, Miami actually won the season series between the NL East rivals. Marlins’ Game 1 and Game 2 starters, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, went 4-0 against Philadelphia in 2023.

Although the Phillies’ lineup is full of lefties, it has performed well against southpaws this season. The formula for Miami to pull off the upset will likely be to keep things close and find a way to win at the end of games. The Marlins went 33-19 in one-run games and posted a top-10 wRC+ in high-leverage situations this season — which might give them an edge if things go down to the wire.

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Phillies’ key to victory: Run it back

After sneaking into the post-season last year and making a run to the World Series, the Phillies have proven that they know how to win in October.

Despite losing Rhys Hoskins to a torn ACL in spring training, Philadelphia looks like a more complete team in 2023, with a chance of going on a run once again. With Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber all turning in elite second halves at the dish, and a bullpen that is significantly more reliable than a year ago, the Phillies are a threat to make their way back to the Fall Classic.

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FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst Will Hill ranked every playoff teams’ chances of winning the World Series in terms of betting value. The team he picked at No. 1 will surprise you.



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