The Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns face off in a rematch of the 2021 NBA Finals on Thursday evening. The Bucks are 35-21 this season, including a 16-12 mark on the road. The Suns host the proceedings, with Phoenix boasting the NBA’s best record at 44-10. Grayson Allen (hip) is listed as probable for Milwaukee, with George Hill (neck) and Brook Lopez (back) ruled out. Cameron Payne (wrist) and Landry Shamet (ankle) are out for Phoenix.

Tipoff is at 10 p.m. ET in Phoenix. Caesars Sportsbook lists Phoenix as a 3.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 233.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Suns odds. Before making any Suns vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 65-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Suns, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Suns vs. Bucks:

• Bucks vs. Suns spread: Suns -3.5
• Bucks vs. Suns over-under: 233.5 points
• Bucks vs. Suns money line: Suns -170, Bucks +145
• MIL: The Bucks are 15-13 against the spread in road games
• PHX: The Suns are 13-14 against the spread in home games

Why the Bucks can cover

With Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way, Milwaukee is very good on both sides of the floor. The Bucks are scoring nearly 1.13 points per possession, a top-five mark in the NBA, and Milwaukee is in the top five of the league in 3-pointers (14.3 per game) and 3-point accuracy (36.4 percent). The Bucks are also above-average in free-throw attempts (21.6 per game) and ball security (13.7 per game), and Milwaukee also boasts tremendous defensive metrics. Opponents are scoring only 108.6 points per 100 possessions, with Milwaukee allowing only 44.4 percent shooting and 34.2 percent shooting from 3-point range. 

The Bucks are No. 6 in the NBA in free-throw attempts allowed (19.8 per game), with top-eight rankings in defensive rebound rate (73.7 percent) and steals (7.8 per game). Milwaukee is also in the top six of the NBA in fast-break points allowed (11.1 per game) and points allowed in the paint (42.7 per game), with Phoenix ranking No. 25 in the league in free-throw attempts on offense.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix is dominating the NBA this season, winning 44 of 54 games and posting a top-two point differential in the league. The Suns are No. 4 in the NBA in defensive rating, with top-four rankings in field-goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, assists allowed, and 2-point percentage allowed. Phoenix is also near the top of the league in turnover creation and steals per game, and the Suns are excellent on offense. 

Led by elite guard play from Devin Booker and Chris Paul, Phoenix is scoring more than 1.13 points per possession, with top-tier marks in 2-point shooting (54.2 percent), 3-point shooting (36.1 percent) and assists (26.6 per game). Milwaukee’s top defensive weakness is preventing 3-pointers, giving up 14.1 per game, and Phoenix is assisting on 62.1 percent of field goals this season. The Suns are also taking care of the ball effectively with 13.1 turnovers per game, and that allows Phoenix to maximize its top-tier shooting profile.

How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 227 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.