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Bills at Saints predictions: Point spread, total, player props, trends for Thanksgiving matchup in New Orleans

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The Buffalo Bills and New Orleans Saints will wrap up the Thanksgiving slate to open up Week 12 when these club square off from Caesars Superdome. Week 11 was not kind to either of these teams as they both suffered losses and saw their opponent put up 40 or more points. This loss was particularly impactful for Buffalo as they have now fallen out of first place in the AFC East, trailing the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Saints are back down to .500 on the season, but are still within the thick of the playoff picture in the NFC, clinging to the No. 7 seed in the conference. 

Below, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this primetime matchup has in store for us. We’ll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Thursday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

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How to watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 25 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
TV:
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Bills -6, O/U 45.5

Line movement

Latest Odds:

New Orleans Saints
+7

The Bills opened as a 4.5-point favorite and that number held even through the Week 11 slate. However, it has since bumped all the way to Bills -6, likely due to Alvin Kamara being ruled out along with a few other key Saints players due to injury. 

The pick: Bills -6. Buffalo is looking to rebound from that demoralizing home loss to the Colts and are set up nicely to do so in New Orleans. Not only is Kamara not suiting up, fellow running back Mark Ingram is questionable and All-Pro right tackle Ryan Ramcyk has also been ruled out. Given that the Bills were just torn to shreds by Jonathan Taylor to the tune of five touchdowns, avoiding an elite back like Kamara is much-needed. Buffalo has also averaged 6.3 yards per play over the last three weeks (second-best in the NFL), which could prose a problem for the Saints’ defense that just allowed Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to post 40 points on Sunday and 380 yards of offense

Key trend: Bills are 3-0-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. 

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Over/Under total

The total for this prime-time affair opened at 48 but has fallen considerably as the week has progressed. Coming out of Week 11, the total stood a 47, but as various Saints players are held out of this matchup, this number has fallen to 45.5. 

The pick: Under 45.5. If the Saints are going to be without this many key players, it’s hard to imagine that Trevor Siemian will be able to put many points on the board, especially against this Buffalo defense that is still No. 1 in the NFL in DVOA entering Week 12. Even with the Bills averaging 31 points per game on the road this season, it’s hard banking on the Saints to carry out their end of the bargain to have this go over. 

Key trend: Under is 8-0-1 in Saints last nine Thursday games. 

  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -180, Under +150)
  • Passing yards: 276.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
  • Total interceptions: 0.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
  • Longest passing completion: 38.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
  • Rushing yards: 32.5 (Over -130, Under +100)

The value isn’t great at -180, but Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight of his 10 games played this season, which points favorably to that prop going over on Thursday night. Allen’s also gone over this rushing yards prop in six games this season.  

Trevor Siemian props

headshot-image
  • Passing yards: 206.5 (Over -120, Under -110)

Siemian has gone over this passing yards number in all three of his starts this seating leading into Week 12. That said, Buffalo is the No. 1 passing defense in DVOA this season. It’s also worth noting that Siemian was listed on the injury report this week (as a full participant) with a right hand injury.

Player props to consider

Devin Singletary total rushing yards: Over 24.5 (-115). Singletary is averaging nearly double this prop on the season and has gone over this total in eight of his 10games played this season. The Saints also just allowed two different backs (and Jalen Hurts) to rush for over 60 yards last week. 

Dawson Knox total receptions: Over 3.5 (-110). Knox saw a season-high 10 targets last week against the Colts and brought in a season-high six receptions. While that increase in volume could be attributed to Buffalo trying to throw its way back into the blowout loss against Indy, Knox does have a solid matchup again this week as the Saints are allowing 4.8 receptions per game this season to opposing tight ends and just allowed Dallas Goedert to catch five of his eight targets last week for 62 yards.  

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LeBron James on whether Kyrie Irving can help Lakers: 'Duh'

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LeBron James has no doubt that Kyrie Irving would make the Lakers a contender, but he noted that he’s not in the team’s front office.



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NBA Roundup: Gilgeous-Alexander drops 42 in Thunder win; Clippers top Knicks in OT

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OKLAHOMA CITY — Canada’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 42 points and Oklahoma City set a Thunder record for points to rout Houston.

Oklahoma City surpassed the 150 it scored in a win over the Boston Celtics last month.

Gilgeous-Alexander shot 7 for 23 in a loss to the Rockets on Wednesday night. He bounced back to make 14 of 23 field goals in the rematch, falling two points short of his career high. The first-time All-Star also made 14 of 15 free throws and had six assists.

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Josh Christopher and TyTy Washington each scored 20 points for Houston.

NETS 125, WIZARDS 123

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NEW YORK — Cam Thomas scored a career-high 44 points off the bench and short-handed Brooklyn overcame a 23-point deficit to beat Washington.

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Edmond Sumner also set a personal best with 29 points. Brooklyn guard Kyrie Irving was out with what the team said was right calf soreness a day after he told the Nets he wants to be traded.

The Nets, who also played without Kevin Durant (right knee MCL sprain), T.J. Warren (left shin contusion) and Ben Simmons (left knee soreness), also lost Seth Curry (left adductor) and Markieff Morris (sore left knee) in the game.

Kristaps Porzingis led the Wizards with 38 points.

SUNS 116, PISTONS 100

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DETROIT — Deandre Ayton had 31 points and 16 rebounds to help Phoenix beat Detroit.

The surging Sungs have won eight of 10 games, including a victory at Boston on Friday night, and have help on the way with Devin Booker nearing his return. The three-time All-Star guard has been out since Christmas with a groin injury, but dunked in warmups in another sign that he’s close to coming back.

Chris Paul had 14 assists for a balanced offence that didn’t need him to make shots, finishing 0 for 7 and without a field goal for the first time since March 18, 2017, when he helped the Los Angeles Clippers beat Cleveland by 30 points.

Mikal Bridges scored 24 points, Cameron Johnson had 20 points and Torrey Craig added 14 points for Phoenix. Saddiq Bey had 25 points for Detroit.

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BUCKS 123, HEAT 115

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MILWAUKEE — Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple-double with 35 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists and Milwaukee beat short-handed Miami for its seventh straight victory.

Jimmy Butler scored 32 points and Tyler Herro added 24 for the Heat, who had just nine available players. Notable injured Miami players included Kyle Lowry (sore left knee) and Victor Oladipo (sprained right ankle).

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Antetokounmpo had his third triple-double of the season and 32nd of his career. The 11 assists matched his season high.

Antetokounmpo’s latest triple-double came two nights after he scored 54 points in a 106-105 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. During the Bucks’ six-game winning streak, Antetokounmpo is averaging 39.4 points, 14.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists.

WARRIORS 119 MAVERICKS 113

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SAN FRANCISCO — Stephen Curry had 21 points, seven assists and six rebounds before injuring his left leg defending a drive and Golden State beat an undermanned Dallas team missing injured star Luka Doncic.

The Warriors said X-rays for Curry were negative, and he will have an MRI exam.

Draymond Green added 17 points, nine rebounds and nine assists for Golen State.

Spencer Dinwiddie scored 25 points for Dallas. Doncic bruised his right heel in the third quarter of 111-106 home victory against New Orleans on Thursday night.

PELICANS 131, LAKERS 126

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NEW ORLEANS — LeBron James moved 36 points away from breaking the NBA career scoring record in the Los Angeles Lakers’ 131-126 loss to New Orleans on Saturday night that ended the Pelicans’ losing streak at 10 games.

James had 27 points to go with nine rebounds and six assists as he continued to close in on Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record total of 38,387 points.

Brandon Ingram scored 35 points for the Pelicans.

CJ McCollum had 23 points, highlighted by a late 3 to help New Orleans close out the final 3:14 on a 9-5 run that kept the Lakers at bay.

Anthony Davis had 34 points and 14 rebounds for the Lakers.

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CLIPPERS 134, KNICKS 128, OT

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NEW YORK — Kawhi Leonard scored 35 points, Paul George added 30 and Los Angeles beat New York in overtime.

After the Clippers lost a 17-point fourth quarter lead, Nicolas Batum’s 3-pointer at the regulation buzzer tied it at 115.

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The Clippers scored the first four points of overtime and never relinquished the lead. Leonard connected on all of his eight free throws in the extra session, finishing 12 for 12 from the line.

Norman Powell added 24 points for the Clippers and Marcus Morris Sr. had 17. Los Angeles has won seven of nine.

Jalen Brunson, who returned after missing a game due to a non-COVID illness, led the Knicks with 41 points. Julius Randle had 28.

BULLS 129, TRAIL BLAZERS 121

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CHICAGO — Zach LaVine scored 36 points, DeMar DeRozan had 27 and Chicago topped Damian Lillard and Portland.

Nikola Vucevic added 23 points and 11 rebounds as Chicago won for the third time in four games, erasing a 17-point deficit in the second half.

Lillard scored 40 points for Portland, and Anfernee Simons had 27. But the Trail Blazers looked a little tired in the second half of their third game in four nights. Portland had won five of six, including a 124-116 victory at Washington on Friday night.

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Tre White's 22 points leads USC to hard-fought 80-74 victory over Washington

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Tre White led the USC Trojans to the hard-fought 80-74 win over the Washington Huskies. White led all scorers on the night with 22 points and added eight rebounds on the night.



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