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Analyzing the offensive contributions of the NHL’s ‘Cy Young candidates’

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If a player racks up a ton of assists, but doesn’t score too many goals, it’s easy to write them off as a one-dimensional scorer. But if a skater keeps tallying goals and isn’t helping their teammates with assists, does the same criticism stand? Probably not, because they’re first on the scoresheet so often.

Through the quarter-mark of the NHL season, a few players have jumped out in hockey’s 2021-22 “Cy Young race”. Building off the list Mike Commito pitched earlier this season, we can look at those players whose point totals have skewed towards goal scoring. The question is which players provide more offensively than their shot, and which are on the path to becoming a true finalist for this ‘award.’

The Leaders

The leaders in this race are obvious, and after Thursday night’s games they’re neck-and-neck with matching 16-3-19 stat lines.

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With a goal and an assist against the Kings, Andrew Mangiapane matched Chris Kreider’s totals in New York. These two players lead the league with a plus-13 differential between their goal and assist totals, and their goals make up 84 per cent of their total scoring.

After showing his effectiveness below the surface over the past few seasons, Mangiapane’s efforts are translating up on the scoresheet consistently with 19 points in 23 games — especially at 5-on-5, where 10 of his goals and two assists were scored.

His shot, as evidenced by those tallies, is the highlight of his game. He isn’t the most frequent shooter in the league, or even relative to his team. But he makes the most of his shot opportunities by driving to quality areas of the ice. Most of his attempts this season, in all situations, have been concentrated between the circles and in front of the net. In fact, his rate of slot shots — 12.8 attempts per 60 — ranks fourth in the league to Auston Matthews, Vladimir Tarasenko, and William Nylander. And as the data points show on the heat map below, that’s where Mangiapane’s found quite a bit of success.

But is that all he contributes?

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Mangiapane ranks second on the Flames, both in all situations and at 5-on-5, in controlled entries to Johnny Gaudreau; about 33 per cent of those entries lead to a scoring chance. At 5-on-5 in particular (since Mangiapane only plays about 35 per cent of the available ice time on the second power play unit), his passing does stand out relative to his team; he attempts to move the puck to the slot often (although he’s only successful about 26 per cent of the time), and effectively sends the puck south in the offensive zone. The winger’s passes directly lead to shot attempts at the fourth-best rate on the team (and 80th among league forwards).

While goal scoring may be Mangiapane’s bread and butter, it’s not all he contributes.

As for Kreider, his 19 points were tallied in two fewer games than Mangiapane, but when adjusting for his playing time, there’s less of a margin between the two wingers in actual minutes played. While the majority of Mangiapane’s scoring has come at 5-on-5, nine of Kreider’s points were net on the power play — almost exclusively as tips and deflections, which are some of the most dangerous attempts a goalie can face in that situation. Goaltenders are challenged by seeing past Kreider’s 6-foot-3 frame in general, but his hand-eye coordination while in front of the blue paint has paid dividends. Few players deflect as many shots as Kreider on the power play, and he’s among the best at scoring off of them.

Based on his shot type, proximity to the net, and the pre-shot movement before his attempts, Kreider’s individual expected goal total (and rate) is the best of the Cy Young candidates.

Kreider’s among the most frequent shooters in New York; in all situation his attempts rank third of the forward group. And he gets the highest rate of shots on goal on his team. But there’s more than just quantity. All shots aren’t created equally, but Kreider’s are valuable based on where he fires them from. Most of his attempts are concentrated to the home plate area in front of the net, and about 56 per cent of his all-situation attempts come from the slot.

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What about the rest of his offensive game?

Kreider isn’t the most frequent 5-on-5 passer. In fact, his offensive zone pass attempts rank 10th among Rangers forwards. He does move up when it comes to distributing the puck to the quality areas, ranking sixth. But his passes don’t usually set his teammates up for a shot; while his raw number of primary shot assists rank fourth on the team, when accounting for his ice time it slips to eighth. And among league forwards, it’s 314th.

The power play is obviously where he’s made such an impact in New York; with the top unit he plays about 73 per cent of the available ice time. There, though, relative to both units, Kreider has one of the lowest pass attempt rates in the o-zone. When he does pass, it’s often to the slot — but his rate is a distance away from the team leader, Artemi Panarin.

Kreider’s contributions, besides his shot, can come before these offensive passing plays. He doesn’t carry the puck in at a leading rate, but a team-leading 32.5 per cent of his attempts lead to a scoring chance. The speedy winger also often brings the puck in with control as the receiver of a pass entry.

So when comparing these two head-to-head, one is more ‘balanced’ than the other below the surface between passing and shooting despite matching scoring stats.

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The Contenders

Kreider and Mangiapane obviously are the clear Cy Young standouts at this point in the season. But they’re not the only ones in the race.

What was our criteria besides scoring totals more slanted towards goals? First, we sifted to find players whose goal scoring absorbed around three quarters of their point totals. Then we narrowed it down to those with loftier goal totals, so while we give nods to Kevin Rooney and Oliver Wahlstrom (5-0-5), as well as Anders Lee and Ryan Poehling (4-0-4), we need to see how they sustain this imbalance as they produce more.

Right now, our players include Alex DeBrincat (13-4-17), Boone Jenner (11-4-15), Jared McCann (10-4-14), Brock Nelson (9-2-11), Brandon Saad (9-3-12), and Eetu Luostarinen (7-1-8).

Now, some players’ all-situation shot generation is influenced by their power play usage. As much as we can weigh playing time, we know having an opportunity for quality shots or passes are impacted by situation. Kreider, Jenner, and DeBrincat are all leaned on for top minutes while Mangiapane is deployed on the second unit. McCann’s currently on PP2, but spent time on the top unit this season. Nelson only played about 42 per cent of the available ice time in the games he played, which trends closer to PP2.

But at the end of the day, this is an all-situation award. So while we usually stress 5-on-5 play to keep the playing field equal, that’s not required here. We just want to know what these players contribute in the minutes and role they play.

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Of all the contenders, including Kreider and Mangiapane, DeBrincat’s the most frequent shooter, both in quantity and quality, as he shoots from the slot at a high rate; about 59 per cent of his shots come from that area of the ice in all situations.

The Blackhawks’ winger is also a quality passer; he successfully moves the puck to the slot at a top-20 rate in the league in all situations. And while his passes directly lead to shots at the third-highest rate in Chicago, DeBrincat also claims the 65th-highest primary shot assist rate in the league. So, like Mangiapane, there’s a lot more to his game than just this shot — and that will likely boost his assist totals as the season progresses.

Nelson of the Islanders, prior to his injury, also created a high rate of slot shots. That’s contributed to his 1.36 expected goal rate that ranks 25th in the league (behind Kreider, Mangiapane, and DeBrincat). That’s the core of Nelson’s game, though, not his set ups. So when healthy, he could stay in the Cy Young race as long as he doesn’t fall too far behind in actual scoring totals.

McCann, on the other hand, ranks fifth on his team in shot assists. It’s not the highest mark in the league, but neither is his expected goal rate. So it won’t be a surprise if his passing starts appearing more on the scoresheet to balance his point totals.

On the surface, while there are quite a few seemingly one-dimensional players here based on their stats, we know that most generate more than just their shot. But for the Cy Young award in hockey, we also can see a true front-runner who relies on his shot a lot and is likely to continue building on his imbalanced scoring total. Kreider’s leading this pack of forwards in the 2021-22 Cy Young award of the NHL, and could continue as the season (and this race) develops.

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Data via Sportlogiq





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LeBron James on whether Kyrie Irving can help Lakers: 'Duh'

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LeBron James has no doubt that Kyrie Irving would make the Lakers a contender, but he noted that he’s not in the team’s front office.



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NBA Roundup: Gilgeous-Alexander drops 42 in Thunder win; Clippers top Knicks in OT

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OKLAHOMA CITY — Canada’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 42 points and Oklahoma City set a Thunder record for points to rout Houston.

Oklahoma City surpassed the 150 it scored in a win over the Boston Celtics last month.

Gilgeous-Alexander shot 7 for 23 in a loss to the Rockets on Wednesday night. He bounced back to make 14 of 23 field goals in the rematch, falling two points short of his career high. The first-time All-Star also made 14 of 15 free throws and had six assists.

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Josh Christopher and TyTy Washington each scored 20 points for Houston.

NETS 125, WIZARDS 123

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NEW YORK — Cam Thomas scored a career-high 44 points off the bench and short-handed Brooklyn overcame a 23-point deficit to beat Washington.

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Edmond Sumner also set a personal best with 29 points. Brooklyn guard Kyrie Irving was out with what the team said was right calf soreness a day after he told the Nets he wants to be traded.

The Nets, who also played without Kevin Durant (right knee MCL sprain), T.J. Warren (left shin contusion) and Ben Simmons (left knee soreness), also lost Seth Curry (left adductor) and Markieff Morris (sore left knee) in the game.

Kristaps Porzingis led the Wizards with 38 points.

SUNS 116, PISTONS 100

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DETROIT — Deandre Ayton had 31 points and 16 rebounds to help Phoenix beat Detroit.

The surging Sungs have won eight of 10 games, including a victory at Boston on Friday night, and have help on the way with Devin Booker nearing his return. The three-time All-Star guard has been out since Christmas with a groin injury, but dunked in warmups in another sign that he’s close to coming back.

Chris Paul had 14 assists for a balanced offence that didn’t need him to make shots, finishing 0 for 7 and without a field goal for the first time since March 18, 2017, when he helped the Los Angeles Clippers beat Cleveland by 30 points.

Mikal Bridges scored 24 points, Cameron Johnson had 20 points and Torrey Craig added 14 points for Phoenix. Saddiq Bey had 25 points for Detroit.

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BUCKS 123, HEAT 115

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MILWAUKEE — Giannis Antetokounmpo had a triple-double with 35 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists and Milwaukee beat short-handed Miami for its seventh straight victory.

Jimmy Butler scored 32 points and Tyler Herro added 24 for the Heat, who had just nine available players. Notable injured Miami players included Kyle Lowry (sore left knee) and Victor Oladipo (sprained right ankle).

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Antetokounmpo had his third triple-double of the season and 32nd of his career. The 11 assists matched his season high.

Antetokounmpo’s latest triple-double came two nights after he scored 54 points in a 106-105 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. During the Bucks’ six-game winning streak, Antetokounmpo is averaging 39.4 points, 14.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists.

WARRIORS 119 MAVERICKS 113

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SAN FRANCISCO — Stephen Curry had 21 points, seven assists and six rebounds before injuring his left leg defending a drive and Golden State beat an undermanned Dallas team missing injured star Luka Doncic.

The Warriors said X-rays for Curry were negative, and he will have an MRI exam.

Draymond Green added 17 points, nine rebounds and nine assists for Golen State.

Spencer Dinwiddie scored 25 points for Dallas. Doncic bruised his right heel in the third quarter of 111-106 home victory against New Orleans on Thursday night.

PELICANS 131, LAKERS 126

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NEW ORLEANS — LeBron James moved 36 points away from breaking the NBA career scoring record in the Los Angeles Lakers’ 131-126 loss to New Orleans on Saturday night that ended the Pelicans’ losing streak at 10 games.

James had 27 points to go with nine rebounds and six assists as he continued to close in on Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s record total of 38,387 points.

Brandon Ingram scored 35 points for the Pelicans.

CJ McCollum had 23 points, highlighted by a late 3 to help New Orleans close out the final 3:14 on a 9-5 run that kept the Lakers at bay.

Anthony Davis had 34 points and 14 rebounds for the Lakers.

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CLIPPERS 134, KNICKS 128, OT

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NEW YORK — Kawhi Leonard scored 35 points, Paul George added 30 and Los Angeles beat New York in overtime.

After the Clippers lost a 17-point fourth quarter lead, Nicolas Batum’s 3-pointer at the regulation buzzer tied it at 115.

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The Clippers scored the first four points of overtime and never relinquished the lead. Leonard connected on all of his eight free throws in the extra session, finishing 12 for 12 from the line.

Norman Powell added 24 points for the Clippers and Marcus Morris Sr. had 17. Los Angeles has won seven of nine.

Jalen Brunson, who returned after missing a game due to a non-COVID illness, led the Knicks with 41 points. Julius Randle had 28.

BULLS 129, TRAIL BLAZERS 121

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CHICAGO — Zach LaVine scored 36 points, DeMar DeRozan had 27 and Chicago topped Damian Lillard and Portland.

Nikola Vucevic added 23 points and 11 rebounds as Chicago won for the third time in four games, erasing a 17-point deficit in the second half.

Lillard scored 40 points for Portland, and Anfernee Simons had 27. But the Trail Blazers looked a little tired in the second half of their third game in four nights. Portland had won five of six, including a 124-116 victory at Washington on Friday night.

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Tre White's 22 points leads USC to hard-fought 80-74 victory over Washington

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Tre White led the USC Trojans to the hard-fought 80-74 win over the Washington Huskies. White led all scorers on the night with 22 points and added eight rebounds on the night.



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