The rivalry between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils began in January 1920 and has consisted of 257 contests, with UNC owning a 142-115 advantage. However, the ACC adversaries surprisingly never have had the opportunity to square off in the NCAA Tournament. That meeting finally takes place Saturday as the Tar Heels and Blue Devils collide in the Final Four of the 2022 NCAA Tournament at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. North Carolina (28-9) advanced by ending Saint Peter’s magical run with a dominant 69-49 victory in the Elite Eight, while Duke (32-6) kept coach Mike Krzyzewski’s bid for a national championship alive in his final season with a 78-69 triumph over Arkansas.

Tipoff is set for 8:49 p.m. ET. The Blue Devils are four-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. North Carolina odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 151. Before making any North Carolina vs. Duke picks or 2022 NCAA Tournament predictions, be sure to check out what SportsLine college basketball expert Matt Severance has to say. 

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 102-71-4 on his last 177 college basketball picks against the spread, returning $2,379 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Duke vs. UNC and just locked in his picks and college basketball predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for UNC vs. Duke:

• North Carolina vs. Duke spread: Blue Devils -4 
• North Carolina vs. Duke over-under: 151 points 
• North Carolina vs. Duke money line: Blue Devils -200, Tar Heels +170 
• DUKE: The Blue Devils are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games 
• UNC: The Tar Heels are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 contests against teams with winning records

Why Duke can cover

The Blue Devils scored at least 80 points in five consecutive contests before being held to 67 in their loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament championship game. They’ve regained their touch in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, averaging 79.8 points over their first four contests. Duke has produced 78 points in three of those games, including its triumph over Arkansas in the Elite Eight in which AJ Griffin scored a team-high 18 on 7-of-9 shooting.

The freshman forward also was the Blue Devils’ top scorer in an 87-67 triumph at North Carolina on Feb. 5, setting a career high with 27 points. Paolo Banchero came up with a big performance in that victory as well, scoring 13 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Also a freshman forward, Banchero leads the Blue Devils with an average of 17.1 points per game. 

Why North Carolina can cover

The Tar Heels already ruined one big moment for Krzyzewski this campaign when they posted a 94-81 victory on March 5 in the legendary coach’s final regular-season home game. Four of UNC’s five starters reached the 20-point mark in the win, with junior forward Armando Bacot leading the way with 23 on 10-of-11 shooting. Senior forward Brady Manek also was a force, recording 20 points and 11 rebounds for the third of his four double-doubles in 2021-22.

Bacot failed to post a double-double in that contest but has registered six straight since and leads the nation with 29. He came up with a huge performance against the Peacocks in the Elite Eight, topping all players with 20 points while pulling down a season high-tying 22 rebounds. Manek, who made six 3-pointers en route to a team-best 21 points in a loss to Duke on Feb. 5, was 4-for-6 from beyond the arc and finished with 19 points against Saint Peter’s.

How to make Duke vs. North Carolina picks

For North Carolina vs. Duke, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Duke vs. North Carolina spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins North Carolina vs. Duke? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Duke vs. North Carolina spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who has crushed his college basketball picks, and find out.