Which first-round pick is right for you?

It’s not completely tied to draft order. Realistically, nobody’s letting Juan Soto slide to Pick 12, but there’s room for judgment calls nonetheless. Maybe you’re more risk averse. Maybe you can’t live without stolen bases. Maybe you’re already weighing position scarcity. We all have our biases.

I’m here to cater to them with sort of a pros-and-cons exercise. There’s a case for and against taking every first-rounder. I make both cases for each so that you can know exactly what you’re getting into and apply your own sensibilities. 

In all, there are 15 players here, but any would make for a defensible first-round pick even in a 10-team league. They’re ordered roughly by ADP. If you’d like to know how I’d draft them, you can check out my rankings.

The Case For: What Fernando Tatis did last year he did in spite of three separate IL stints. Project his numbers over 162 games, and they come out to 52 home runs and 31 stolen bases, which would have ranked first and fourth in the majors. He’s one of just two players capable of delivering first-rate numbers across all five categories, and of the two, he’s the only one currently healthy. 

The Case Against: Relatively healthy, anyway. The only real argument against taking Tatis first overall is that the shoulder issue responsible for two of those three IL stints last year remains unresolved. There was no surgical intervention in the offseason, and until there is, we may just be waiting for the other shoe to drop. Even if he again avoids a long-term absence, the possibility of several short ones remains high, though it’s worth noting the injury dates all the way back to his time in the minors.

The Case For: At a time when stolen bases are the most coveted category, no first-rounder is projected for more than Trea Turner, and you could argue it’s no longer even his best category with the strides he’s made as a hitter the past couple years. The divide between his Roto and points value used to be wider, but he’s broadened his skill set to the point he’s equally appealing in both. He’s also picked up second base eligibility, giving the position its first first-rounder since Jose Altuve’s heyday.

The Case Against: Turner may be the best bet for stolen bases in the first round, but it isn’t by much. Gone are the days when we envisioned 60-70 steals for him, and it’s arguable whether the tradeoffs in batting average and home runs were worth it. Speaking of his home run output, it’s still low by first-round standards, which is notable since the margin for error in that category is particularly thin. You could also argue he’s more of a floor play than a ceiling play in Round 1.

The Case For: For as good as Juan Soto has already been, there’s room for more. He has a claim to being the best pure hitter in the game, particularly with Mike Trout’s durability coming into question. He’s certainly the best on-base threat, and considering he reached at a .525 clip in the second half, he may be the best since Barry Bonds himself. Of course, that’s of greater significance in points leagues than traditional 5×5 Rotisserie, but he’s no slouch in any category, even contributing a usable number of stolen bases.

The Case Against: It’s a stretch to classify Soto as a legitimate base-stealer given that he was 9 for 16 last year and has technically reached double digits only once. Though he tapped into his power more in the second half, his swing isn’t optimized for it, producing too many ground balls. Fact is he may not measure up to the average first-rounder in two of the five Rotisserie categories, and the current Nationals lineup won’t do him any favors in runs and RBI either.

The Case For: Power and speed — you can’t go wrong with that combo in a 5×5 league, and actually, Jose Ramirez’s points league value may be even higher given how infrequently he strikes out. What really sets him apart, though, is that he’s a third baseman. That position has gotten crushed over the past couple years, to the point there are only a handful of bankable hitters there. Ramirez is clearly the best of them.

The Case Against: I’ve talked about how stolen bases are in high demand. I’ve talked about how home runs have a narrow margin for error. The one hitter category that may be most critical to fill early, though, is batting average, and that’s the one area where Ramirez doesn’t measure up to the other first-rounders, Shohei Ohtani excluded. He just puts the ball into the air too much.

The Case For: For all the talk of who’s best here, the actual best hitter last year, in both points and Rotisserie leagues, was Vladimir Guerrero, who was competing for a Triple Crown as late as September. It was a breakthrough widely perceived as inevitable, the natural culmination of superlative exit velocities and premium contact skills, and it gives him the best combination of batting average and power among the first-round bats (save for maybe Mike Trout). Batting in the middle of a loaded Blue Jays lineup should bolster those counting stats even more.

The Case Against: He doesn’t steal bases, and that’s a non-starter for those who insist on meeting that scarcest category at a point in the draft when it doesn’t require sacrifices anywhere else. The case against Guerrero in points leagues is harder to make, but some have suggested that his second-half production — i.e., a .288 batting average and 40-homer pace — might be a more realistic expectation than what he just did. It would put him closer to equal footing with Freddie Freeman.

The Case For: I’ve said Tatis is one of only two players capable of contributing first-rate production in all five categories. Bichette isn’t the other, but only because I’m drawing a distinction between “first-rate” and “very good.” His across-the-board production makes for a non-committal starting point if you want to keep your options open in Round 2 and beyond. Seeing as he plays for the Blue Jays, you can trust his runs and RBI to remain high.

The Case Against: The .828 OPS should tell you he’s on a lesser talent plane than some of the other first-rounders, and his supporting cast plays a big part in elevating him to mid first-round status. That supporting cast should remain strong, but if for some reason it doesn’t, he’s vulnerable. Like Turner and Soto, Bichette’s home run output may leave a bit to be desired, and it’s not clear after just one full season how reliable he’ll be as a base-stealer. Unlike Tatis and Turner, he’s only eligible at shortstop, a position where you’re sure to find value later.

The Case For: Make it back to back years that Bryce Harper‘s Statcast page has revealed even better batted-ball data than during his initial MVP season (2015), and lo and behold, he’s now won a second MVP. With his barrel rates up and his strikeout rates down, he’s of help now in batting average as well as home runs, with enough speed sprinkled in to satisfy those who can’t do without. In short, there has never been a point in his career when he’s felt more secure than right now. He gets a nice boost, too, in points leagues for his on-base prowess, which may be second only to Soto.

The Case Against: The reason Harper has never felt more secure than right now is because he’s had his ups and downs, and while what he did in that shortened 2020 season grants some validity to his 2021, he still has to contend with the much longer track record of being more like a .260 hitter. Some may apply the injury-prone label to him still, but his health hasn’t been a major issue since 2017.

The Case For: Only two players had more than Shohei Ohtani’s 46 home runs last year and only seven had more than his 26 stolen bases. Using a single pick to deliver a massive blow to those two categories has always been the dream in Rotisserie leagues. Ohtani also does that one thing that no other hitter does: pitch. The chance for a quick boost in the pitching categories whenever he takes the mound is an added bonus even though you’ll usually want to use him as a hitter. 

The Case Against: His most impressive quality is also his most dangerous one. Contributing as both a hitter and a pitcher doubles his opportunity for injury and runs the risk of wearing him down. Manager Joe Madden made the bold decision not to build in regular rest days for Ohtani last year and got away with it. Will he again? There’s also performance risk given how often Ohtani strikes out (he hit .229 in the second half). Plus, you’ll be filling your utility spot with your very first pick.

The Case For: Gerrit Cole is the consensus No. 1 starting pitcher, so if that’s your thing, he’s your guy. (And if you play in a points league, it should probably be your thing.) Cole has proven durable and dominant, rarely missing a start over the past four years while compiling a 2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 12.7 K/9. At a position with inherent volatility, those kinds of assurances count for even more. Securing someone so bankable as your ace ensures you don’t have to take chances at the position a couple rounds later, when the hitters are comparatively safer. 

The Case Against: Is Cole so bankable, though? Sure, he has been, but his reliability took a hit once the foreign substance ban kicked in. He still dominated at times, but at times not, resulting in a 4.25 ERA over his final 15 starts. Also, for as much as he stands out from the rest of the starting pitcher crop, the hitters drafted in this range, at least in a Rotisserie context, stand out even more. If Jacob deGrom is able to start every fifth game, Cole probably isn’t the No. 1 pitcher.

The Case For: Finally, we get to the player other than Tatis with a chance for first-rate numbers in all five categories. Putting health aside, he and Ronald Acuna are the clear Nos. 1 and 2 in leagues that use traditional 5×5 scoring, which includes standard Rotisserie. The fact we don’t know when Acuna is returning from a torn ACL is the only reason he might slip to the back half of Round 1, which creates the obvious potential to profit on that uncertainty.

The Case Against: Did I mention we don’t know when he’s coming back? Every now and then, we’re treated to a video of him hitting or doing some other baseball-related activity, but at last report, Acuna himself was aiming for a May return, which means we won’t have a window into his progress this spring. Until he’s game-ready, we can’t be sure that one-sixth of the season won’t turn into one-fourth or even one-half. It’s a huge leap of faith in Round 1.

The Case For: Duh, he’s Mike Trout, the best player of the past 10 years and likely his entire generation. Seeing the longtime consensus No. 1 slide to late in Round 1 should make dollar signs appear in your eyes. In terms of his hitting, there has been no letup over the years. Give him a full allotment of at-bats, and he’ll be the odds-on favorite for AL MVP, hitting for average and power with an on-base percentage comparable to Soto and Harper.

The Case Against: About that full allotment of at-bats … yeeeah, Trout hasn’t gotten that since 2016. Granted, he didn’t miss significant time until last year, when he strained his calf in mid-May, but the fact he still hasn’t made it back from that seemingly straightforward injury clearly makes people nervous. He’s not much of a base-stealer at this stage of his career either, which makes it all the easier to pass him over for someone who is.

The Case For: The reigning NL Cy Young broke through last year to become, at least inning for inning, the best pitcher this side of Jacob deGrom. His 2.00 xERA and 2.30 xFIP were on a different planet from all other qualifiers (which didn’t include deGrom), and his 1.63 FIP was in a different galaxy. Drafting him gives your pitching staff as much upside as anyone’s in the league.

The Case Against: We may be getting a little ahead of ourselves given that Burnes threw just 167 innings last year. It was an enormous leap in its own right, and it still isn’t up to the workload standards we expect from an ace. Will he recover from it OK? Should we assume he can handle even more? Last year was only good enough to make him the No. 6 pitcher in both 5×5 and points leagues, so we’re asking him to take another step forward.

The Case For: Mookie Betts‘ first-round legacy is practically on the level of Trout’s, with last year also representing his first real slip-up. It was a modest one, too, that can mostly be blamed on him playing through a bone spur in his hip. He finished the year stronger than he started it and, at 29, still offers across-the-board potential with his superlative contact skills, tendency to pull the ball in the air and first-rate supporting cast.

The Case Against: Betts’ injury situation is sort of like Tatis’ in that he needed regular time off to manage the inflammation in his hip but then didn’t have it surgically corrected in the offseason. So are we about to relive the frustration? It’s also not as clear in Betts’ case if the reward is worth the risk. Statcast says he lost a step last year, which may or may not be attributable to the hip, but if steals are no longer a part of his profile, he could take a Jose Altuve-like tumble in the rankings.

The Case For: The longtime Fantasy tease delivered on expectations and then some in his first full-length season. The power was there, along with a willingness to run. What elevates him to the first-round discussion, though, is the unimpeachable hitting profile. He cut his strikeout rate down to 16 percent. He leveled out his production against lefties and righties. His .307 xBA and .580 xSLG both placed in the top 4 percent of the league, the former being even better than Guerrero’s.

The Case Against: Tucker isn’t all that fast, really, and it’s not uncommon for middle-of-the-order hitters like him to lose that willingness to run. It’s a modest number of steals he delivered last year anyway, so that aspect of his profile may be getting a little too much credit. It wouldn’t take much slippage (in that area or others) for him to perform more like a third-rounder than a first-rounder — which, by the way, is exactly what he was last year, ranking 28th in Rotisserie.

The Case For: It’s foolproof. You take Freddie Freeman, you know exactly what you’re getting: a .300 batting average, 30-plus homers and a combined 200 runs and RBI. He’s been a fringe first-rounder for at least the past half-decade and has never left anyone wanting for more. Picking him gives your team a sturdy foundation and an obvious path forward.

The Case Against: Boooooring. Nah, he’s fine. You’re giving up some stolen bases if you take him ahead of Betts and/or Tucker, but it’s not even clear how many. Some might shy away from Freeman because he hasn’t picked a team yet, but he’s going to do what he does no matter where goes. While he’s safely a top-15 player, he probably won’t be top-five, which is about the most negative thing anyone can say about him.

Which sleepers, breakouts, and busts do you need to know? Visit SportsLine now to get rankings for every single position heading into your draft, all from the model that called Brad Hand’s disappointing season, and find out.