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2021 Liberty Bowl prediction, odds: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech picks, best bets from model on 43-30 run

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The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been clicking offensively of late, scoring at least 21 points in each of their final six regular-season games. They won four of those contests, producing 43 or more points in three of the victories. Mississippi State (7-5) attempts to conclude the 2021 campaign with another strong performance when they face the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) on Tuesday in the 2021 Liberty Bowl.

Kickoff from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tenn., is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. The Bulldogs are 9.5-point favorites in the latest Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 58.5. Before making any Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State picks and Liberty Bowl 2021 predictions, be sure to check out the betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the third week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

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Now, the model has set its sights on Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State and locked in its Liberty Bowl 2021 picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college football odds and betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech: 

  • Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech spread: Bulldogs -9.5
  • Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech over-under: 58.5 points
  • Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech money line: Bulldogs -350, Red Raiders +280
  • MSU: The Bulldogs are 5-1 against the spread in their last six overall contests
  • TT: The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 bowl games

Featured Game | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Why Mississippi State can cover

The Bulldogs have one of the best aerial attacks in the nation as they rank third in passing with an average of 385.7 yards per game. They also are tied with Wake Forest for eighth in the country with 36 passing touchdowns. Steering the ship is quarterback Will Rogers, whose 4,449 yards tie him with Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong for second nationally.

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The sophomore has thrown for at least 300 yards in 10 consecutive contests and 11 of 12 overall this season, falling six yards shy of the mark on Sept. 11 against North Carolina State. Rogers, who has eclipsed the 400-yard mark four times, leads the nation with a 75.1 percent completion rate and is tied for ninth with 35 scoring tosses. He has been especially dangerous over his last four outings, registering 16 touchdown passes. 

Why Texas Tech can cover

The Red Raiders lost four of their final five regular-season games, but the last three setbacks came against ranked opponents. And after being outscored 75-21 in the first two of those defeats, they put up a good fight against Baylor before dropping a 27-24 decision. Donovan Smith had a strong effort in the setback, completing 15-of-23 pass attempts for 262 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Including an appearance in relief of Henry Colombi on Oct. 30 against Oklahoma, the redshirt freshman quarterback is 66-of-106 for 859 yards with six TDs and two interceptions in four outings. Smith won’t be targeting wideout Erik Ezukanma, who has declared for the 2022 NFL Draft, so Kaylon Geiger may see a lot of action against Mississippi State. The senior receiver has made fewer than four catches in each of his last six contests but is second on the team with 524 yards and posted back-to-back 100-yard performances against Texas and Florida International in September.

How to make Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 57 points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can only get the model’s Liberty Bowl picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl 2021? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the computer model that is up almost $3,600 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.

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